Hey all,
Sorry about the lack of coverage in the past few periods, been a busy time for ongy and myself.
Anyway as of midday today Asia seems to be in very deep green levels with the HSI above 4% and ASX above 2%.
Macquarie Group also seems to have recovered from their drop earlier on today.
Despite all this however, I view Europe as having a different story especially with the riots and damaged that happened over labour day. For automakers like Fiat it may be an up day; however, despite positive data from Asia due to growth, I do not see the same happening in Europe. With the UK recession worsening I see financials in a weak position early in the day, despite the falling credit spreads which I feel could start dragging down the Asian market. I am slightly positive on energy and commodity plays today in Asia carrying over to Europe however (with an eye on RIO and ALCOA). I do agree with ongy that the market situation now is being flooded with positive sentiment, and do feel that there is a need to be cautious with regards to the question has the economy bottomed out.
Personally at this point I see despite positive manufacturing and economic data, the core of the situation being unemployment and rising consumer credit problems will pull the economy back down. I feel that the positive data is part and parcel of the current business cycle where inventories will naturally deplete (more so due to gov. intervention and stimulus) and does need to be restocked; however, I do not feel that this upcycle will be sustainable for much longer. I essence for a recovery to occur, consumer spending must recover first which would in turn spur investment... I also am bullish on Gold at the moment as inflationary fears and pressure begin to become imminent, and it all depends on the fed's ability to control money supply effectively.
I call a buy on BP/RDSA, RIO and NG
a sell on GSK as the swine flu scare is beginning to taper off despite rising pandemic alert levels
sell on MKS and BARC as well
And from my previous call on AccorMittal (MT) in the US opener later to sell off at a price of $26.
Monday, 4 May 2009
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3 comments:
I would fire sell DAI today as well... given the outlook of the US auto market....
wrap up the previous position in XOM as well later in the day, as I do not see oil prices going up much further
oh and basically sell teh existing position in MKS sometime today...
and continue Holding NG
Sorry my bad... I didn't realize the market was closed today~
European banks are up atm... but i feel it's too risky a call~
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