Dear readers
Despite a slight pre mature call for a day technical rebound, which came through on the Monday session, it is noticeable that we have had the party, people celebrated over it, and we are back to business. The question looming over market at the moment is, why did the. ecb pour out so much money, when this is a situation of a begger who is already in debt, is borrowing money to solve its problem?
Reflecting on this, market certainly took the bailout negatively and considered this is socialising risk amongst the region. Interesting enough, market, again, is demonstrating pockets of strength that is supporting levels and provide a buffer for further downside.
It must be noted the strength on the US front looks promising, as job outlooks
are improving. Consumer and manufacturers are leading the US out of the bottom. However, it also appears state government and local governments are also struggling to finance their budget.
On the china front, things aren't looking too good either given the high Level of risk aversion due to the inflation outlook and overheating concerns.
Gauging the direction at the moment will be more important as market will head into pockets. For near term, we may expect increasing volatility but a lack of direction.
GFA remains to be a seller in medium term over the outlook of the global economy.
To keep it short for today, if you wish to discussion any issues, or queries relating to our views, please feel free to contact us on gfainvestment@gmail.com.
Ongy out.
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
Asia Morning Analyircs: 120510 : Determining the moves
Wednesday, 12 May 2010Labels: Asia Morning Analytics 0 comments
Monday, 10 May 2010
Asia Morning Analytics : 100510 EURO SAVIOUR
Monday, 10 May 2010
Dear readers
An eventful weekend with everyone spending time with your mother whilst the EU ministers ploughing through possible measures to contain their contagion problem that is inflicting pressure amongst the globe. Ending with EU ministers target to inject money into the system as an attempt to stabilise the currency. And its debt market, this will certainly become the highlight for the week!
Although our call for technical rebound seems premature last week, the bounce clearly is coming by this week, with the euro's attempt to save its last minute contagion. A question we should ask, however, is the credilbility of such plans, and would merely pumping cash into the system will achieve the desired effects? This will certainly depend on the model being used and the measures employed to avert this crisis alone.
Given the highly likely tech bounce today, a quick snap and run opportunity is present. However, GFA maintains a short to medium term bearish outlook for the EU foldout. Pending on those questions being answered, it is highly likely the contagion may continue as the structural issue of the problem yet remains unresolved.
As at this stage, it does appear the larger EU countries will be the loser for the whole game, as a mean to stabilise the region.
Anyway, to keep it short today, GFA maintains a buy rating on heavily punished stocks on a relative basis. Port related stocks are also attractive.
Ongy out.
An eventful weekend with everyone spending time with your mother whilst the EU ministers ploughing through possible measures to contain their contagion problem that is inflicting pressure amongst the globe. Ending with EU ministers target to inject money into the system as an attempt to stabilise the currency. And its debt market, this will certainly become the highlight for the week!
Although our call for technical rebound seems premature last week, the bounce clearly is coming by this week, with the euro's attempt to save its last minute contagion. A question we should ask, however, is the credilbility of such plans, and would merely pumping cash into the system will achieve the desired effects? This will certainly depend on the model being used and the measures employed to avert this crisis alone.
Given the highly likely tech bounce today, a quick snap and run opportunity is present. However, GFA maintains a short to medium term bearish outlook for the EU foldout. Pending on those questions being answered, it is highly likely the contagion may continue as the structural issue of the problem yet remains unresolved.
As at this stage, it does appear the larger EU countries will be the loser for the whole game, as a mean to stabilise the region.
Anyway, to keep it short today, GFA maintains a buy rating on heavily punished stocks on a relative basis. Port related stocks are also attractive.
Ongy out.
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Thursday, 6 May 2010
Asia Morning Analytics 060510 : A more violent reaction than anticipated
Thursday, 6 May 2010
Dear readers
Market has been generally acting in the way we anticipated in the medium term, as we cpuld clearly see the market is trending down over contagion fears and continual debt problems. I note that we have been aware of this problem, and has continually pressed on looking for exits. We have also previously mentioned this time round, the adjustment may be steeper to the february slide caused by the same jittery. The only thing that has not played out as nicely as predicted came down to our techincal rebound analysis and market continued to punch thru important levels to take the market lower.
We remain and reiterate our previous view today, and add that we are still looking for signs of technical rebound. It should be noted the previous positive announcements in recent weeks may not be reflected by the global fears.
To keep it short today, we will continue to recoomend over technical short squeezes as a counter force may keep the mkt alive today.
Ongy out.
Market has been generally acting in the way we anticipated in the medium term, as we cpuld clearly see the market is trending down over contagion fears and continual debt problems. I note that we have been aware of this problem, and has continually pressed on looking for exits. We have also previously mentioned this time round, the adjustment may be steeper to the february slide caused by the same jittery. The only thing that has not played out as nicely as predicted came down to our techincal rebound analysis and market continued to punch thru important levels to take the market lower.
We remain and reiterate our previous view today, and add that we are still looking for signs of technical rebound. It should be noted the previous positive announcements in recent weeks may not be reflected by the global fears.
To keep it short today, we will continue to recoomend over technical short squeezes as a counter force may keep the mkt alive today.
Ongy out.
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Tuesday, 4 May 2010
Asia Morning Analytics 040510 : Welcome the technical Rebound
Tuesday, 4 May 2010
Dear readers
Morning and would like to commend on the market's movement overnight. With the VIX down more than 8% overnight, it provides indication the current problems in front of us may be receding. This certainly promotes risk appetite and could look at potential short squeezes this session.
This more or less confirms our view of a technical rebound this week, given the high level of correlation for the markets. Please note that I do continue to pose a medium bearish trend over the market as implications from the events at hand do suggest further worries ahead od us.
As for the technical rebound opportunity, believe the best way to capitalise will be identifying relatively high beta stocks. May also look for cheap vaLuation, such as Gome and export related industries.
Again, trying to make it short recently, so if you would like to obtain our opinion over specific stocks, please feel free to contact us on gfainvestment@gmail.com.
Happy trading!
Ongy out.
Morning and would like to commend on the market's movement overnight. With the VIX down more than 8% overnight, it provides indication the current problems in front of us may be receding. This certainly promotes risk appetite and could look at potential short squeezes this session.
This more or less confirms our view of a technical rebound this week, given the high level of correlation for the markets. Please note that I do continue to pose a medium bearish trend over the market as implications from the events at hand do suggest further worries ahead od us.
As for the technical rebound opportunity, believe the best way to capitalise will be identifying relatively high beta stocks. May also look for cheap vaLuation, such as Gome and export related industries.
Again, trying to make it short recently, so if you would like to obtain our opinion over specific stocks, please feel free to contact us on gfainvestment@gmail.com.
Happy trading!
Ongy out.
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Monday, 3 May 2010
Asia Morning Analytics : A technical bounce!!!
Monday, 3 May 2010
Dear readers
As previously discussed, I continue to maintain a bearish view over the next month and has been claiming for a gradual decline. The situation has been murky, and all events are playing out against the market.
However, we may have a turnaround event over the weekend which may spark a technical rebound from current level - the /reek authority has accepted the EU changes to the plan, thus allowing a bailout package to go thru. This is certainly a hoorah event for the market in the near term, as we will see risk appetite to return for a bit. I anticipate the short squeeze on the euro may take the euro back towards the high end of march, looking at 1.34 as a cap.
However, remain to see that various global events maintain to keep a lid on further growth, as we continue to be trapped rangebound from the start of the year. Near term problems to highlight will continue to be sovereign problems, dubai world's repayment issue, and government measrues within the asia region.
The diversion in political measures start to raise alarms as the recovery base may not be as strong as one think. Given the bipolar nature of these policies, it may hamper the delicate recovery in front of us.
Cureently maintain bullish view on gold and oil, as they may provide near term hedging opportunity. How the market has been playing out also continue to support their advancement.
May consider to sell into this rally, or pick up thede hedging instruments. Just like the theme for the day, advise investors to look at this tech rebounding days ahead.
Again, trying to keep it short today, shall there be any needs to further discuss, please do not hesitate to contact gfainvestment@gmail.com. We are more than welcome to answer your questions or respond to your query!
Ongy out.
As previously discussed, I continue to maintain a bearish view over the next month and has been claiming for a gradual decline. The situation has been murky, and all events are playing out against the market.
However, we may have a turnaround event over the weekend which may spark a technical rebound from current level - the /reek authority has accepted the EU changes to the plan, thus allowing a bailout package to go thru. This is certainly a hoorah event for the market in the near term, as we will see risk appetite to return for a bit. I anticipate the short squeeze on the euro may take the euro back towards the high end of march, looking at 1.34 as a cap.
However, remain to see that various global events maintain to keep a lid on further growth, as we continue to be trapped rangebound from the start of the year. Near term problems to highlight will continue to be sovereign problems, dubai world's repayment issue, and government measrues within the asia region.
The diversion in political measures start to raise alarms as the recovery base may not be as strong as one think. Given the bipolar nature of these policies, it may hamper the delicate recovery in front of us.
Cureently maintain bullish view on gold and oil, as they may provide near term hedging opportunity. How the market has been playing out also continue to support their advancement.
May consider to sell into this rally, or pick up thede hedging instruments. Just like the theme for the day, advise investors to look at this tech rebounding days ahead.
Again, trying to keep it short today, shall there be any needs to further discuss, please do not hesitate to contact gfainvestment@gmail.com. We are more than welcome to answer your questions or respond to your query!
Ongy out.
Labels: Asia Morning Analytics 0 comments
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