Hello all,
Sorry about the absence from this blog, I was occupied by a certain exam which I just took yesterday. I hope to resume posting and activity of this blog latest by tomorrow, once I've done my catching up homework.
For Asia today however, we notice a downturn in the market today. Consistent with our views on the market, we finally feel confident enough to begin our sector rotational play which has been reflected in the gains in power play in the past week. We shift our sector plays however to the gas side, as we do feel that Power plays especially those involving China have a higher beta than than warranted due to extensive exposure to China's Industrial Activity and Coal Prices.
Will catch up with all this soon,
Happy Trading,
Dive2Blue
Monday, 8 June 2009
Tuesday, 26 May 2009
FTSE 260509 Comment
Tuesday, 26 May 2009
Hi all,
Apologize over our lack of coverage in the Europe and US market recently, due to our over commitment with many other aspects of our lifes.
Would like to give a brief comment over our views today - again, taking leads from Asia, we expect today to be a down day first of all. Second of all, we may also expect us taking some leads in the afternoon when US comes into the game.
I feel today will have big moves, and again, testing important levels just like all other markets. However, the wipsaw may remain intact for the meanwhile.
We continue to be bearish on the market, and would not favour financials. We will remain buyers of consumer staples and other defensives.
That's about it today!
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Apologize over our lack of coverage in the Europe and US market recently, due to our over commitment with many other aspects of our lifes.
Would like to give a brief comment over our views today - again, taking leads from Asia, we expect today to be a down day first of all. Second of all, we may also expect us taking some leads in the afternoon when US comes into the game.
I feel today will have big moves, and again, testing important levels just like all other markets. However, the wipsaw may remain intact for the meanwhile.
We continue to be bearish on the market, and would not favour financials. We will remain buyers of consumer staples and other defensives.
That's about it today!
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Asia 260509 Asia Close
Afternoon all,
Again, this concept of divergence has came into play. We saw wipsaw move around asia, with only ASX went above the waters on late trading session, despite being under the reds for most of the session, up 1.35% led by materials sector.
Hangseng's wipsaw move, again, took grounds between the 17200-17300 level, but lowered in late trading session, led by miners and oil and gas company, whilst the financials had a flat to slight red day. A noticeable play was Cosco's catch up against China Merchant Holdings, and would say the move has pretty much complete, and are on equal footing. Another noticeable move was defensive edging much lower down, which defeated my defensive rotation call.
However, the higlight for this afternoon is that: on the technical side:
1. Now that the risky currencies has completed its head and shoulders (or is in the middle of completing), the downside will come into play. This coincides with the GM fall, which may magnify the fall this week, taking us towards the major support across all index, ending this bumpy ride, towards the downside.
2. Many index has also formed similar technical patterns, and we may expect hitting towards major support lines and faltering in the near term.
3. However, major risk points towards the housing data and consumer data that is due on 28 May, which may, again, take us back again into this rangebound trading region.
While on the fundamental side:
1. This theme of pullback, which has been evenutating for a while now, seems to be coming together, as more believes the current valuation do not justifies how companies are coping at the moment. Again, the reminder should come towards: WE ARE STILL IN THE MIDST OF A RECESSION - ITS EASING, BUT ITS STILL THERE!
2. There are ongoing crises, as happening in North Korea, Nigeria and swine flu, which may continue to plague individual economies, which may hinder the process of recovery.
3. A question continues to remain as, do the government need to intervene once more to kick start the global engine - since US consumption has practically dried up, whilst the Asia exporting model may seem to falter base on this assumption.
Anyhows, to conclude tonight, we remain bearish over the market, as we have ever since called in end of Apr. We are looking for the big pullback in the medium term, and look for each indices to test towards their current 50 SMA, which, roughly, equates to a 10% pullback. Whilst for overnight, I have a strong bearish outlook over how US would unfold, and thus, taking lead, tomorrow may be a heavy down day, running more tough lines towards the important levels.
Thats the end for tonight.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Again, this concept of divergence has came into play. We saw wipsaw move around asia, with only ASX went above the waters on late trading session, despite being under the reds for most of the session, up 1.35% led by materials sector.
Hangseng's wipsaw move, again, took grounds between the 17200-17300 level, but lowered in late trading session, led by miners and oil and gas company, whilst the financials had a flat to slight red day. A noticeable play was Cosco's catch up against China Merchant Holdings, and would say the move has pretty much complete, and are on equal footing. Another noticeable move was defensive edging much lower down, which defeated my defensive rotation call.
However, the higlight for this afternoon is that: on the technical side:
1. Now that the risky currencies has completed its head and shoulders (or is in the middle of completing), the downside will come into play. This coincides with the GM fall, which may magnify the fall this week, taking us towards the major support across all index, ending this bumpy ride, towards the downside.
2. Many index has also formed similar technical patterns, and we may expect hitting towards major support lines and faltering in the near term.
3. However, major risk points towards the housing data and consumer data that is due on 28 May, which may, again, take us back again into this rangebound trading region.
While on the fundamental side:
1. This theme of pullback, which has been evenutating for a while now, seems to be coming together, as more believes the current valuation do not justifies how companies are coping at the moment. Again, the reminder should come towards: WE ARE STILL IN THE MIDST OF A RECESSION - ITS EASING, BUT ITS STILL THERE!
2. There are ongoing crises, as happening in North Korea, Nigeria and swine flu, which may continue to plague individual economies, which may hinder the process of recovery.
3. A question continues to remain as, do the government need to intervene once more to kick start the global engine - since US consumption has practically dried up, whilst the Asia exporting model may seem to falter base on this assumption.
Anyhows, to conclude tonight, we remain bearish over the market, as we have ever since called in end of Apr. We are looking for the big pullback in the medium term, and look for each indices to test towards their current 50 SMA, which, roughly, equates to a 10% pullback. Whilst for overnight, I have a strong bearish outlook over how US would unfold, and thus, taking lead, tomorrow may be a heavy down day, running more tough lines towards the important levels.
Thats the end for tonight.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
260509 Asia Open
Morning all,
A quiet overnight as US and UK was closed, while Europe in most of the session went red, but finished off in green with healthcare stocks leading the market back up.
Given very little positive lead, we may expect this divergence to continue: a declining stock market with upmoving risky currencies. We may point to stories over this pricing in of a V-shaped recovery may falter, though USD may continue to fall due to declining purchasing power, leading to upmoving risky currencies.
However, we may continue to expect pullbacks, though slow and painful, over this week.
That's the comment for today!
happy trading!
ongy out.
A quiet overnight as US and UK was closed, while Europe in most of the session went red, but finished off in green with healthcare stocks leading the market back up.
Given very little positive lead, we may expect this divergence to continue: a declining stock market with upmoving risky currencies. We may point to stories over this pricing in of a V-shaped recovery may falter, though USD may continue to fall due to declining purchasing power, leading to upmoving risky currencies.
However, we may continue to expect pullbacks, though slow and painful, over this week.
That's the comment for today!
happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Friday, 22 May 2009
Asia 220509 Open
Friday, 22 May 2009
Morning all,
Again, would like to apologize over the lack of update over the last two days, but certainly the movements were not overly attractive to discuss over, with all the wipsaw move coming around the corner.
Though, last night, the move on the downside started kicking into the game, as investors gauges for the pullback to allow for fundamentals to catchup with the valuation. Again, this notion of consumer credit issue and rising housing defaults continues to loom over the market, while rumours over UK and US losing its AAA rating, as per Moody, sent shock over the system. Gold jumped over $950 mark, which to me, is a significant level. If $950 remains to hold, I remain a buyer of gold, as both an inflation and recession hedge.
Overnight, we saw downside continue to kick into the market, as DJ and S&P lowered by 1.5% and 1.6% respectively, though the IPO on ONETABLE was extremely sucessful.
Looking ahead, we see two main theme coming into the market:
1. Sector rotation across markets, seeking for more defensive stocks to protect downside.
2. Dollar divergence with the risk aversion poses questions as to whether the value of dollar is going towards a major downside, especially with recent credit rating rumours.
However, I would believe that the downside has not been excaberated thus far, though this bearish lead will remain intact for the coming sessions.
As of today, I remain to be seller of offensive stocks, and will look to be buyers of defensive stocks across market, a theme that I have been insisting on over the last 7-8 session.
Thats about it! Happy trading!
ongy out.
Again, would like to apologize over the lack of update over the last two days, but certainly the movements were not overly attractive to discuss over, with all the wipsaw move coming around the corner.
Though, last night, the move on the downside started kicking into the game, as investors gauges for the pullback to allow for fundamentals to catchup with the valuation. Again, this notion of consumer credit issue and rising housing defaults continues to loom over the market, while rumours over UK and US losing its AAA rating, as per Moody, sent shock over the system. Gold jumped over $950 mark, which to me, is a significant level. If $950 remains to hold, I remain a buyer of gold, as both an inflation and recession hedge.
Overnight, we saw downside continue to kick into the market, as DJ and S&P lowered by 1.5% and 1.6% respectively, though the IPO on ONETABLE was extremely sucessful.
Looking ahead, we see two main theme coming into the market:
1. Sector rotation across markets, seeking for more defensive stocks to protect downside.
2. Dollar divergence with the risk aversion poses questions as to whether the value of dollar is going towards a major downside, especially with recent credit rating rumours.
However, I would believe that the downside has not been excaberated thus far, though this bearish lead will remain intact for the coming sessions.
As of today, I remain to be seller of offensive stocks, and will look to be buyers of defensive stocks across market, a theme that I have been insisting on over the last 7-8 session.
Thats about it! Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Wednesday, 20 May 2009
Asia 200509 Morning Wrap
Wednesday, 20 May 2009
Morning all,
Some night it was for the US overnight market - The wipesaw move that bounced up and down on the 0.7% mark suggests that bears obviously haven't took themselves out of the market after Monday's move. We are continuing to test this resistance on 8500 on DJ and this 900 mark on S&P500. Again, leads were obviously mixed, with Home Depot giving upside outlook on profit, whilst big banks are seeking to repay TARP loan is giving signs that the credit market is continuing to stablise. Housing market also had signs for stablisation, from the weekend and Monday, as NAHB index suggested that housing confidence had significantly improved from a year ago, and the crude has also breached $60.
However, the wipsaw moves saw all indices to fall in the last 75 minutes of trading, as Apr US housing starts and permits plunge to record lows on apartments, falling 13% to an annual rate of 458,000 and a 46% tumble in multi family starts, while this theme of continual credit pressure on consumer side is surfacing with AMEX cutting 4000 staff to set asie reserve for bad debts.
Though the treasuries had little change, while risky currencies continue to maintain its high for the year. The indices were led down by banks, as people continue to not believe in this mortgage market.
Looking ahead, I believe the asia markets may start off slightly up, but will taper off throughout the day to end in red, given the mixed leads. There will be fights to defend the 3800 level for ASX, 9000 level for Nikkei, and 17000 level for HSI. I believe we will be ending the day near those levels, though I remain the stance of bears will be coming out and this is merely a second test for resistance.
Therefore, I would remain to be a seller of financials, given the leads in US, and would remain to be in the theme of sector rotation into defensives. Given last session's pullback for defensives, this may be a buy opportunity to get into names such as Towngas (1071), and HK & China Gas (3 hK) for gas utility play, and Huadian and CLP Holdings for the power utility play.
I think the oil sector will have a mix story today, as moves will become wipsaw with a higher crude price and a jump in Baltic Dry, though weak volume over the last session may suggests pullback. This will be a similar story for the material sector.
I remain to see USD to strengthen as market starts to pullback, as investors seek for quality, thus, I would remain to be a buyer of precious metals on the pullback.
That's about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Some night it was for the US overnight market - The wipesaw move that bounced up and down on the 0.7% mark suggests that bears obviously haven't took themselves out of the market after Monday's move. We are continuing to test this resistance on 8500 on DJ and this 900 mark on S&P500. Again, leads were obviously mixed, with Home Depot giving upside outlook on profit, whilst big banks are seeking to repay TARP loan is giving signs that the credit market is continuing to stablise. Housing market also had signs for stablisation, from the weekend and Monday, as NAHB index suggested that housing confidence had significantly improved from a year ago, and the crude has also breached $60.
However, the wipsaw moves saw all indices to fall in the last 75 minutes of trading, as Apr US housing starts and permits plunge to record lows on apartments, falling 13% to an annual rate of 458,000 and a 46% tumble in multi family starts, while this theme of continual credit pressure on consumer side is surfacing with AMEX cutting 4000 staff to set asie reserve for bad debts.
Though the treasuries had little change, while risky currencies continue to maintain its high for the year. The indices were led down by banks, as people continue to not believe in this mortgage market.
Looking ahead, I believe the asia markets may start off slightly up, but will taper off throughout the day to end in red, given the mixed leads. There will be fights to defend the 3800 level for ASX, 9000 level for Nikkei, and 17000 level for HSI. I believe we will be ending the day near those levels, though I remain the stance of bears will be coming out and this is merely a second test for resistance.
Therefore, I would remain to be a seller of financials, given the leads in US, and would remain to be in the theme of sector rotation into defensives. Given last session's pullback for defensives, this may be a buy opportunity to get into names such as Towngas (1071), and HK & China Gas (3 hK) for gas utility play, and Huadian and CLP Holdings for the power utility play.
I think the oil sector will have a mix story today, as moves will become wipsaw with a higher crude price and a jump in Baltic Dry, though weak volume over the last session may suggests pullback. This will be a similar story for the material sector.
I remain to see USD to strengthen as market starts to pullback, as investors seek for quality, thus, I would remain to be a buyer of precious metals on the pullback.
That's about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Tuesday, 19 May 2009
190509 Asia Open
Tuesday, 19 May 2009
Morning all,
Apologize for yesterday's miss for update. Overnight, the downtrend got snapped by some positive data over the weekend and overnight, as housing starts in US has increased in April, while overnight suggested confidence among U.S. homebuilders in May increased to the highest level since September, by The National Association of Home Builders/ Wells Fargo index, which, MAY, point towards a floor for the housing market. Further, with the threats by Nigerian Militant, this also fuels crude to jump, whilst Lowes results beating mood that lifts the market up.
As suggested by the currency leads, this has fueled optimism for the equity market, as dollar lowered against a basket of currencies, with Euro up 100 pip, Aussie up 200 pip and Pound up 200 pip. This led DJ and S&P to rally 2.85% and 3.04% respectively, fueled by significant increases in Financials by 7.19%, while consumer discretionary up 4.27%. Increases in crude also led to 3.30% increase in the energy sector and 3.57% in the material sector.
However, I remain to state my short term bearish view on the market, given that I believe a further correction should come about, as oppose to this spike in confidence. This is on the basis of queries over demand resumption, given continual limited credit available across the economy, esepecially for consumers. We may continue to see bad debts rising to the surface, though we question the treatment of these bad debts. I believe we will see further capital raising across banks and also corporates given that the deleveraging theme has not passed away from our current situation. Thus, I remain to see treasuries yield to lower, while USD continue to appreciate on the theme of flight to quality, as investors continue to question the validity and speed of the recovery.
But looking a day ahead today, we will see US optimism spur over Asia, and we may generally expect a 2% increase across the board. The magnitude of jump in ASX may be greater than the other Asia peers due to the sharp spike in oil prices overnight.
I would rotate the winnings from defensives, and be a seller of Towngas (1071) and HK & China Gas (3) and Singtel (SGT) whilst believing that Energy players will be the winner today, and I would look to buy CNOOC (883), SINOPEC , and Angang (347) and Magang (323).
Thats about it today.
Happy tradiung!
ongy out.
Apologize for yesterday's miss for update. Overnight, the downtrend got snapped by some positive data over the weekend and overnight, as housing starts in US has increased in April, while overnight suggested confidence among U.S. homebuilders in May increased to the highest level since September, by The National Association of Home Builders/ Wells Fargo index, which, MAY, point towards a floor for the housing market. Further, with the threats by Nigerian Militant, this also fuels crude to jump, whilst Lowes results beating mood that lifts the market up.
As suggested by the currency leads, this has fueled optimism for the equity market, as dollar lowered against a basket of currencies, with Euro up 100 pip, Aussie up 200 pip and Pound up 200 pip. This led DJ and S&P to rally 2.85% and 3.04% respectively, fueled by significant increases in Financials by 7.19%, while consumer discretionary up 4.27%. Increases in crude also led to 3.30% increase in the energy sector and 3.57% in the material sector.
However, I remain to state my short term bearish view on the market, given that I believe a further correction should come about, as oppose to this spike in confidence. This is on the basis of queries over demand resumption, given continual limited credit available across the economy, esepecially for consumers. We may continue to see bad debts rising to the surface, though we question the treatment of these bad debts. I believe we will see further capital raising across banks and also corporates given that the deleveraging theme has not passed away from our current situation. Thus, I remain to see treasuries yield to lower, while USD continue to appreciate on the theme of flight to quality, as investors continue to question the validity and speed of the recovery.
But looking a day ahead today, we will see US optimism spur over Asia, and we may generally expect a 2% increase across the board. The magnitude of jump in ASX may be greater than the other Asia peers due to the sharp spike in oil prices overnight.
I would rotate the winnings from defensives, and be a seller of Towngas (1071) and HK & China Gas (3) and Singtel (SGT) whilst believing that Energy players will be the winner today, and I would look to buy CNOOC (883), SINOPEC , and Angang (347) and Magang (323).
Thats about it today.
Happy tradiung!
ongy out.
0 comments
Sunday, 17 May 2009
Fast Retailing CEO fuels Gap takeover talk
Sunday, 17 May 2009
Tadashi Yanai, the Japanese entrepreneur behind Fast Retailing Co., owner of the Uniqlo clothes brand, has helped fuel speculation that it will bid for Gap Inc. by saying that this was not "a crazy idea," according to media reports.
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0 comments
Areva reportedly sells Total stake
French nuclear power group Areva has sold its stake in oil giant Total in order to fund its own projects, according to a weekend newspaper report.
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Saturday, 16 May 2009
Stocks to Watch: Stocks in focus for Monday
Saturday, 16 May 2009
Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Monday's session are Lowe's Cos., Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Consolidated Edison Inc.
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Friday, 15 May 2009
Asia 150509 Morning Wrap
Friday, 15 May 2009
Morning all,
First of all, apologies over the lack of afternoon wrap last night, as it was a big day with HSI tanking up to 3%, while in general, the Asia region lowered by 2%, led by continue bank sell-offs, while materials and energy also lowered from commodities plunging. Defensives took a firmer hold, but also turned lower as investors profit takes and repositions for the upcoming data overnight.
However, overnight had an interesting play, which snapped off the week's bear run, with DJ up 0.56%, while S&P up 1.04%. The tech's led the way, with NADSDAQ up 1.50%. Though it should be noted that a lot of swipsaw move occured in the morning, before the afternoon took its hold to end higher up. One issue is, jobless claims did climb, though suggested its coming mostly out of the bankrupt auto sectors. Market shrugged off the news, and took the lead from a lowering libor that, again, hints towards the worst of the credit crisis is over. Amid of such notion, though, I do remain to see a bit more sell off in financials given this real economy has not settled down, while unemployment continues to rise, as implied by the rising jobless claims, and also the foreseeable problems from GM collapse. This seeks questions over whether the consumer credit issue is still at hand, since retail sales are down, while producer priced increased as the raw materials has jumped between 30-50% over the past two months. Given that private consumption is not exactly recovering, while mounting credit card bills and piling up, I do question whether a second wave over consumer credit will surface soon through increasing bad debts.
On a technical level, given the four days of bear run, we may also consider there will be some need to cover some levels for consolidation. Given that DJ's did the consolidation yesterday, amid of rising jobless claims, we may possibly see Asia to end near flat today since Asia remains to do a bit of catch up from the bear run, whilst there will be some technical buys this morning to cover up those levels. Though, this afternoon session may taper off due to positioning of the European data, and continue towards bearish stances to go through the weekend. However, KOSPI and TSEC may outperform given the lead from NASDAQ last night.
I would expect to see some financials to jump start this morning from technical buying, but would remain to see them to taper off by midday and in the afternoon. I would like to see them end near flat today, and would remain a bearish stance over HSBC (5). Similarly, I believe red financials will have some technical entry this morning, though possibly, it will taper off in the morning. However, CCB has been quite hard beaten, thus, it should end up 1.5-2% today.
For the insurance, I would also remain to believe it would travel more flattish.
As per the materials, CNOOC and Sinopec would also start up higher as crude rebounded from its low last night. Angang and magang will probably take another technical buys to end up higher this morning, though, would more be expecting 1-2% gains.
I remain a buyer of defensive names, as I still remain to believe the sector rotation theme. I would remain to buy Huadian and Huaneng, while for Gas play, I prefer Towngas and HK& China Gas.
I would start to be conservative over precious metal play as the bears and bulls are fighting over grounds on that, while this pullback may possibly hint towards a setback on gold and silver for the near term.
Thats about it today!
Happy trading!
ongy out.
First of all, apologies over the lack of afternoon wrap last night, as it was a big day with HSI tanking up to 3%, while in general, the Asia region lowered by 2%, led by continue bank sell-offs, while materials and energy also lowered from commodities plunging. Defensives took a firmer hold, but also turned lower as investors profit takes and repositions for the upcoming data overnight.
However, overnight had an interesting play, which snapped off the week's bear run, with DJ up 0.56%, while S&P up 1.04%. The tech's led the way, with NADSDAQ up 1.50%. Though it should be noted that a lot of swipsaw move occured in the morning, before the afternoon took its hold to end higher up. One issue is, jobless claims did climb, though suggested its coming mostly out of the bankrupt auto sectors. Market shrugged off the news, and took the lead from a lowering libor that, again, hints towards the worst of the credit crisis is over. Amid of such notion, though, I do remain to see a bit more sell off in financials given this real economy has not settled down, while unemployment continues to rise, as implied by the rising jobless claims, and also the foreseeable problems from GM collapse. This seeks questions over whether the consumer credit issue is still at hand, since retail sales are down, while producer priced increased as the raw materials has jumped between 30-50% over the past two months. Given that private consumption is not exactly recovering, while mounting credit card bills and piling up, I do question whether a second wave over consumer credit will surface soon through increasing bad debts.
On a technical level, given the four days of bear run, we may also consider there will be some need to cover some levels for consolidation. Given that DJ's did the consolidation yesterday, amid of rising jobless claims, we may possibly see Asia to end near flat today since Asia remains to do a bit of catch up from the bear run, whilst there will be some technical buys this morning to cover up those levels. Though, this afternoon session may taper off due to positioning of the European data, and continue towards bearish stances to go through the weekend. However, KOSPI and TSEC may outperform given the lead from NASDAQ last night.
I would expect to see some financials to jump start this morning from technical buying, but would remain to see them to taper off by midday and in the afternoon. I would like to see them end near flat today, and would remain a bearish stance over HSBC (5). Similarly, I believe red financials will have some technical entry this morning, though possibly, it will taper off in the morning. However, CCB has been quite hard beaten, thus, it should end up 1.5-2% today.
For the insurance, I would also remain to believe it would travel more flattish.
As per the materials, CNOOC and Sinopec would also start up higher as crude rebounded from its low last night. Angang and magang will probably take another technical buys to end up higher this morning, though, would more be expecting 1-2% gains.
I remain a buyer of defensive names, as I still remain to believe the sector rotation theme. I would remain to buy Huadian and Huaneng, while for Gas play, I prefer Towngas and HK& China Gas.
I would start to be conservative over precious metal play as the bears and bulls are fighting over grounds on that, while this pullback may possibly hint towards a setback on gold and silver for the near term.
Thats about it today!
Happy trading!
ongy out.
1 comments
Thursday, 14 May 2009
UK Opening
Thursday, 14 May 2009
Sorry for being away for a while, might be away for a while more atm, got lotsa personal stuff coming up.
However, ongy and I have agreed to one thing... a wait and see approach, we view entering hte market now as highly volatile and risky due to the amount of economic data coming out this week.
Given the scenarios and the quick day trades being made in Asia, we have decided a conservative appraoch to teh FTSE today is best which started negative and went into positive territory earlier this morning.
If made to take plays into account, I do see further downside later in the day (Swiss and Dutch data comning out today) thus agreed with a rotational move towards defensives like NG, TESCO and BT (despite the negative news today, look out for take up opps).
Overall however we resume our bearish position of the market and are holding to see if the next down cycle led by consumer credit and a dwindling gov. stimulus plan will have.
However, ongy and I have agreed to one thing... a wait and see approach, we view entering hte market now as highly volatile and risky due to the amount of economic data coming out this week.
Given the scenarios and the quick day trades being made in Asia, we have decided a conservative appraoch to teh FTSE today is best which started negative and went into positive territory earlier this morning.
If made to take plays into account, I do see further downside later in the day (Swiss and Dutch data comning out today) thus agreed with a rotational move towards defensives like NG, TESCO and BT (despite the negative news today, look out for take up opps).
Overall however we resume our bearish position of the market and are holding to see if the next down cycle led by consumer credit and a dwindling gov. stimulus plan will have.
1 comments
140509 Asia Morning Wrap
Good Morning everyone,
Looks like the sluggish "growth" may have some bumpy ride ahead, given US retail sales unexpectedly lowered in April. This may produce signs with regards to the consumer credit problem that I have mentioned about last week, that gives me the idea that banks may have a good down trend given their rising bad debt issues.
Further, rumours leaking out that US may lose its AAA rating is hitting the market, as concerns rises over the inability for the US Govt to finance themselves out of the big spending in the past 6 months.
These news tanked the market, and as copper and crude both fell to month lows amid china fuels some sense of growth for the economy. Gold also slid from high as dollar rose against the major currencies, where AUD was 0.765 last night, and now opens to 0.7527, while the Euro was at 1.36, now at 1.35. However, the sterling moved little.
Overnight, DJ down 2.18%, S&P down 2.69%, while Nasdaq down 3.01%. This confirms with my previous expectation that market is now currently taking profits, and prepare for upcoming news over problems with bad debt and a sluggish consumption demand. We may also see some steam coming off as stimulus packages might have ran its way to the end. However, given China investment seems to be bullish at the moment, we may see this as a pull back rather than another freefall coming ahead, as the market may start to price in the fact that it has ran much ahead of the recovery.
Hence, given my expectation, I continue to expect general market over Asia to lower for another 1- 1.5%, though ASX may suffer harder as it is mostly commodities related.
I see there will be continue pullbacks from crude, hence this may pull back for CNOOC and Sinopec, and will start lower today for HK. As for ASX, I do see OSH, AED and Santos to lower from both profit taking and lowering oil prices.
For the materials, I think it will be slightly more resilient than the crude. Coal and steel play may not suffer as hard from the market, despite industrial metals took a rather big hit last night. I expect it will start lower, but the movement may taper off this afternoon, and I would see this as buying opportunity on the dip, if it hits certain technical levels. Hence, I would put my radar on long into angang (347), magang (323) and China Coal Energy (1081).
I also remain bullish over this notion on precious metal play, and would like to be expose myself into names like zijin mining (1899), despite I expect it to lower this morning, after the 5% run yesterday.
However, I remain buyer of defensive names today, and would like to buy on the dip for the power plays, on names such as Huadian (1071) and Huanen Power (902), and would continue to be buyer for gas plays names such as Towngas (1083) and HK & China Gas (3). As per ASX, I would remain to remain a bit bullish over the telco names for resilience against the market. I see some buy opportunity on Telstra (TLS.ax).
I remain a seller of financials, and would like to be a seller of HSBC (5) and Standard Chartered (2888), given the overseas market continue to profit take. The red financials may also continue to have profit taking, though afternoon session may be pulled up. This also applies in ASX, and I remain a seller of NAB, ANZ and MQG.
In terms of the insurance, again, I think a flat day will go ahead.
I see seller in auto given the I believe the market is overbought, and there will be some bounces back. I will be a seller of Geely Auto (157).
I also see selling in ports play over the poor US retails.
Thats about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Looks like the sluggish "growth" may have some bumpy ride ahead, given US retail sales unexpectedly lowered in April. This may produce signs with regards to the consumer credit problem that I have mentioned about last week, that gives me the idea that banks may have a good down trend given their rising bad debt issues.
Further, rumours leaking out that US may lose its AAA rating is hitting the market, as concerns rises over the inability for the US Govt to finance themselves out of the big spending in the past 6 months.
These news tanked the market, and as copper and crude both fell to month lows amid china fuels some sense of growth for the economy. Gold also slid from high as dollar rose against the major currencies, where AUD was 0.765 last night, and now opens to 0.7527, while the Euro was at 1.36, now at 1.35. However, the sterling moved little.
Overnight, DJ down 2.18%, S&P down 2.69%, while Nasdaq down 3.01%. This confirms with my previous expectation that market is now currently taking profits, and prepare for upcoming news over problems with bad debt and a sluggish consumption demand. We may also see some steam coming off as stimulus packages might have ran its way to the end. However, given China investment seems to be bullish at the moment, we may see this as a pull back rather than another freefall coming ahead, as the market may start to price in the fact that it has ran much ahead of the recovery.
Hence, given my expectation, I continue to expect general market over Asia to lower for another 1- 1.5%, though ASX may suffer harder as it is mostly commodities related.
I see there will be continue pullbacks from crude, hence this may pull back for CNOOC and Sinopec, and will start lower today for HK. As for ASX, I do see OSH, AED and Santos to lower from both profit taking and lowering oil prices.
For the materials, I think it will be slightly more resilient than the crude. Coal and steel play may not suffer as hard from the market, despite industrial metals took a rather big hit last night. I expect it will start lower, but the movement may taper off this afternoon, and I would see this as buying opportunity on the dip, if it hits certain technical levels. Hence, I would put my radar on long into angang (347), magang (323) and China Coal Energy (1081).
I also remain bullish over this notion on precious metal play, and would like to be expose myself into names like zijin mining (1899), despite I expect it to lower this morning, after the 5% run yesterday.
However, I remain buyer of defensive names today, and would like to buy on the dip for the power plays, on names such as Huadian (1071) and Huanen Power (902), and would continue to be buyer for gas plays names such as Towngas (1083) and HK & China Gas (3). As per ASX, I would remain to remain a bit bullish over the telco names for resilience against the market. I see some buy opportunity on Telstra (TLS.ax).
I remain a seller of financials, and would like to be a seller of HSBC (5) and Standard Chartered (2888), given the overseas market continue to profit take. The red financials may also continue to have profit taking, though afternoon session may be pulled up. This also applies in ASX, and I remain a seller of NAB, ANZ and MQG.
In terms of the insurance, again, I think a flat day will go ahead.
I see seller in auto given the I believe the market is overbought, and there will be some bounces back. I will be a seller of Geely Auto (157).
I also see selling in ports play over the poor US retails.
Thats about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Wednesday, 13 May 2009
Asia 130509 Afternoon Wrap
Wednesday, 13 May 2009
Afternoon all,
Some day it was.... with so many wipesaw moves across each market. To wrap up, ASX200 was down 0.54%, while Nikkei up 0.45%. Kospi and TSEC up 0.78% and 0.82% respectively, showing some strengths with the tech sector. HSI had a very wipsaw move, with the market opened lower, but headed up 1.7% in the morning session, however sellers got back into the game in the afternoon, and HSI finished down 0.55%.
As per sector performance today, the properties sector up 2.11%, with Cheung Kong (1) up 2% and Reits are up 2%, while HSCEI was up 0.17%. Again, this notion of financials dragging the market came into the play, though BOC (2388) closed up 1%.
This theme of china slamming breaks on credit seems to continue to drag onthe market, as ICBC, though at one point was higher up on the market, finished down 0.65%. BOC (3988) also went down 1%. CCB (939) down 3.82% given the rights were listed today. However China Merchant Bank (3968) went up 4.5% today.
As expected, the insurance went rather flat, as China Insurance ends flat, and Ping An went down -0.6%.
As I mentioned, i did not want to touch the telcos as China Mobile (941) went into a trading halt, while both Unicom (762) and China Telecom (728) both down 3.27% and 3.39% respectively. From here, I will see China Mobile to have some catch up to do as it resumes trading.
Oil stocks, as mentioned this morning, should have a good day given the oil price shooting to new highs again, this led Sinopec and Cnooc to go up 2% and 5% respectively. Also, this morning's belief in the copper play given the factory investment theme also led Jiangxi Copper (358) up 4%, while Chalco (2600) also up 2%. Moreover, this coal theme should not be left out, as Shenhua Energy (1088) and China Coal Energy (1898) both went up 4% and 2% respectively.
Steel play, as mentioned, also took the lead today, with Angang (347) and Magang (323) both taking leads, up 7% and 5% respectively by midday, though closing down both to 4%. Likewise, this precious metal play took the day high with zijin mining (3899) up 7% at one point, but closing down at 5.41%.
Autos suprised me, as Geely finally admitted eyeing on Saab, taking Geely up 12% at one point, put strength died out, closing up 4%. Given data showing strength in car sales in domestic market, autos in general also did well, with Dongfeng also up 1.84%.
Defensive names were my picks today, as HK & China Gas (3) went up 2.8% by miday, before slipping down to close up 1.69%. CLP (2) took hit, as report came out demonstrating a hit on earnings, ending down 1.54%. Huadian (1081) down 1.54%, HK Electric (6) down 0.59% , China Gas Holdings (384) up 1.29%, Huaneng Power International (902) down 1.57%, Dateng International Power (991) down 0.54%, Towngas China (1083) up 3.52%. Hence, defensive was ok relative to market, though power play was submissive to the gas play, which clearly outperformed the market.
Looking ahead for tomorrow, I remain bearish over the HSI, as I see more downside to both profit taking and concerns over the market has overrun itself. I also remain buyer of defensives and sellers of financials. Will provide more updates tomorrow!
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Some day it was.... with so many wipesaw moves across each market. To wrap up, ASX200 was down 0.54%, while Nikkei up 0.45%. Kospi and TSEC up 0.78% and 0.82% respectively, showing some strengths with the tech sector. HSI had a very wipsaw move, with the market opened lower, but headed up 1.7% in the morning session, however sellers got back into the game in the afternoon, and HSI finished down 0.55%.
As per sector performance today, the properties sector up 2.11%, with Cheung Kong (1) up 2% and Reits are up 2%, while HSCEI was up 0.17%. Again, this notion of financials dragging the market came into the play, though BOC (2388) closed up 1%.
This theme of china slamming breaks on credit seems to continue to drag onthe market, as ICBC, though at one point was higher up on the market, finished down 0.65%. BOC (3988) also went down 1%. CCB (939) down 3.82% given the rights were listed today. However China Merchant Bank (3968) went up 4.5% today.
As expected, the insurance went rather flat, as China Insurance ends flat, and Ping An went down -0.6%.
As I mentioned, i did not want to touch the telcos as China Mobile (941) went into a trading halt, while both Unicom (762) and China Telecom (728) both down 3.27% and 3.39% respectively. From here, I will see China Mobile to have some catch up to do as it resumes trading.
Oil stocks, as mentioned this morning, should have a good day given the oil price shooting to new highs again, this led Sinopec and Cnooc to go up 2% and 5% respectively. Also, this morning's belief in the copper play given the factory investment theme also led Jiangxi Copper (358) up 4%, while Chalco (2600) also up 2%. Moreover, this coal theme should not be left out, as Shenhua Energy (1088) and China Coal Energy (1898) both went up 4% and 2% respectively.
Steel play, as mentioned, also took the lead today, with Angang (347) and Magang (323) both taking leads, up 7% and 5% respectively by midday, though closing down both to 4%. Likewise, this precious metal play took the day high with zijin mining (3899) up 7% at one point, but closing down at 5.41%.
Autos suprised me, as Geely finally admitted eyeing on Saab, taking Geely up 12% at one point, put strength died out, closing up 4%. Given data showing strength in car sales in domestic market, autos in general also did well, with Dongfeng also up 1.84%.
Defensive names were my picks today, as HK & China Gas (3) went up 2.8% by miday, before slipping down to close up 1.69%. CLP (2) took hit, as report came out demonstrating a hit on earnings, ending down 1.54%. Huadian (1081) down 1.54%, HK Electric (6) down 0.59% , China Gas Holdings (384) up 1.29%, Huaneng Power International (902) down 1.57%, Dateng International Power (991) down 0.54%, Towngas China (1083) up 3.52%. Hence, defensive was ok relative to market, though power play was submissive to the gas play, which clearly outperformed the market.
Looking ahead for tomorrow, I remain bearish over the HSI, as I see more downside to both profit taking and concerns over the market has overrun itself. I also remain buyer of defensives and sellers of financials. Will provide more updates tomorrow!
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
120509 US close
Afternoon all,
US obviously had some swipsaw movement today, given that oil shooted through to $60/bbl! Wow... some sentiment! Anyhows, oil strength may be a combination of hedging buying and pricing in for the pending recovery as China's factory investment has expanded. This obviously took the oils stock up.
Though this did not pull through for the market, as financials continue to have profit taking over dilution concerns, while techs retreated.
However, we saw some sector rotation back into defensive to take the market back up from the bottom, with DJ up 0.6% and S&P finishing -0.4%. Nasdaq, the tech driven indices, finished down-0.88%.
Dollar continues to drop on the back of a "pending recovery", thus, shooting up the precious metal plays. Gold shooted up to $926, while Silver reached news high, breaching the $14 mark.
Looking ahead, I believe this sector rotation theme will be in play, as market continues to profit take from the 9 week long rally. I would continue to place myself into consumer staples and utilities defensives, while on the outlook to stay in the gold and silver run.
Thats about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
US obviously had some swipsaw movement today, given that oil shooted through to $60/bbl! Wow... some sentiment! Anyhows, oil strength may be a combination of hedging buying and pricing in for the pending recovery as China's factory investment has expanded. This obviously took the oils stock up.
Though this did not pull through for the market, as financials continue to have profit taking over dilution concerns, while techs retreated.
However, we saw some sector rotation back into defensive to take the market back up from the bottom, with DJ up 0.6% and S&P finishing -0.4%. Nasdaq, the tech driven indices, finished down-0.88%.
Dollar continues to drop on the back of a "pending recovery", thus, shooting up the precious metal plays. Gold shooted up to $926, while Silver reached news high, breaching the $14 mark.
Looking ahead, I believe this sector rotation theme will be in play, as market continues to profit take from the 9 week long rally. I would continue to place myself into consumer staples and utilities defensives, while on the outlook to stay in the gold and silver run.
Thats about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Silver likely to trade like precious metal: GFMS
Precious metals consultancy GFMS Ltd. is predicting that silver will probably trade more like a precious metal than an industrial metal in 2009, following a year in which it did a bit of both.
GFMS and the Silver Institute released the annual World Silver Survey on Tuesday, and they talked about how investor demand drove prices above US$20.00 an ounce in the first half of 2008. But prices then plummeted below US$9.00 in the fall as the global recession hit and investors worried about how that would affect industrial demand for silver.
Prices have bounced back since then as silver reaffirmed its status as a store of value, and GFMS expects that thesis to continue to hold in the near-future.
"I think well probably continue to see silver trade a bit more closely with gold than the base metals. And thats because I dont really think investors are going to desert the market. Quite the opposite, i think you could see growth in investment in silver," GFMS chairman Philip Klapwijk said in an interview.
The survey showed that investment demand continued to be a key driver of silver in 2008, as 93.1 million ounces flowed into the three main exchange-traded funds for silver. At the same time, coin and medal fabrication jumped by a remarkable 63% to 64.9 million ounces as investors wanted more of them.
On the other hand, industrial demand dropped 1.4% from 2007 levels to 447.2 million ounces (still the second-highest reading ever).
On the supply side, mine production rose 2.5% in 2008 to 680.9 million ounces. However, with many base-metal mines closing, a great deal of byproduct production has been removed from the market. As a result, GFMS expects mine production to shrink this year.
"Theres still potential pipeline growth in silver looking out over the next few years. But to the extent particularly copper production remains shuttered, that will have a medium-term impact on silver mine production," Mr. Klapwjk said.
He added that the run in silver prices is sustainable "as long as the economic backdrop remains pretty positive for investment in hard assets and precious metals."
Peter Koven
GFMS and the Silver Institute released the annual World Silver Survey on Tuesday, and they talked about how investor demand drove prices above US$20.00 an ounce in the first half of 2008. But prices then plummeted below US$9.00 in the fall as the global recession hit and investors worried about how that would affect industrial demand for silver.
Prices have bounced back since then as silver reaffirmed its status as a store of value, and GFMS expects that thesis to continue to hold in the near-future.
"I think well probably continue to see silver trade a bit more closely with gold than the base metals. And thats because I dont really think investors are going to desert the market. Quite the opposite, i think you could see growth in investment in silver," GFMS chairman Philip Klapwijk said in an interview.
The survey showed that investment demand continued to be a key driver of silver in 2008, as 93.1 million ounces flowed into the three main exchange-traded funds for silver. At the same time, coin and medal fabrication jumped by a remarkable 63% to 64.9 million ounces as investors wanted more of them.
On the other hand, industrial demand dropped 1.4% from 2007 levels to 447.2 million ounces (still the second-highest reading ever).
On the supply side, mine production rose 2.5% in 2008 to 680.9 million ounces. However, with many base-metal mines closing, a great deal of byproduct production has been removed from the market. As a result, GFMS expects mine production to shrink this year.
"Theres still potential pipeline growth in silver looking out over the next few years. But to the extent particularly copper production remains shuttered, that will have a medium-term impact on silver mine production," Mr. Klapwjk said.
He added that the run in silver prices is sustainable "as long as the economic backdrop remains pretty positive for investment in hard assets and precious metals."
Peter Koven
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130509 Asia Opening
Morning all,
To be brief, looking at leads over in US, jitteries to sustain this rally comes out with Greenspan talking about a bottoming in housing market, while crude smashed up to the $60/bbl mark. However, mixed signals continue to come out, with home prices in US fell most on record in 1Q, while dollar weakens against the major basket of currencies as stock drops on dilution concerns, not to note that the first budget deficit comes out from the white house.
This lead to what we see in the market for some sector rotation into defensives, that took dows back up greento 0.6%, while s&p got pulled from the lows back to finnish down -0.1%. Tech dragged the market to finish down -0.88%.
We saw drags from auto and banks as dilution continues to raise concern in the market, while GM is pretty much set note for a decline.
Looking ahead for today, I believe we will see similar rotation coming in, and defensive names will be favoured. Though oil stocks may be pulled up from last night's spike.
I remain to be a seller of financials, shorting names such as HSBC (5.hk), given that the overseas market tanked quite hard, and Standard Chartered. I would also be seller of the red financials, with a sell on CCB, ICBC and BOC. I would expect the insurance names such as Pingan and China Insurance to remain flat.
I would be a buyer of defensive names in Power play such as AGL Energy, HK & China Gas. I may consider a buyer of defensive staples, such as Woolsworth, Tsingtao and Wong Wong. With regards to telco plays, I am unsure with those names as mix plays have been coming about the last few session.
Considering last night's run in crude, I do expect some opening strength with OSH, AED, Origin and Santos in AU, and Cnooc and Sinopec in HK. Though I may question their strength throughout the day.
I remain favouring precious metal plays and would go long in silver or gold, though I prefer gold over silver, given silver already reached highs. Industrial metals play may rise today given that china Industrial Production figures comes out today, and as people went into the factory investment theme yesterday. I would favour Jingxi Copper and MRE.
Thats about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
To be brief, looking at leads over in US, jitteries to sustain this rally comes out with Greenspan talking about a bottoming in housing market, while crude smashed up to the $60/bbl mark. However, mixed signals continue to come out, with home prices in US fell most on record in 1Q, while dollar weakens against the major basket of currencies as stock drops on dilution concerns, not to note that the first budget deficit comes out from the white house.
This lead to what we see in the market for some sector rotation into defensives, that took dows back up greento 0.6%, while s&p got pulled from the lows back to finnish down -0.1%. Tech dragged the market to finish down -0.88%.
We saw drags from auto and banks as dilution continues to raise concern in the market, while GM is pretty much set note for a decline.
Looking ahead for today, I believe we will see similar rotation coming in, and defensive names will be favoured. Though oil stocks may be pulled up from last night's spike.
I remain to be a seller of financials, shorting names such as HSBC (5.hk), given that the overseas market tanked quite hard, and Standard Chartered. I would also be seller of the red financials, with a sell on CCB, ICBC and BOC. I would expect the insurance names such as Pingan and China Insurance to remain flat.
I would be a buyer of defensive names in Power play such as AGL Energy, HK & China Gas. I may consider a buyer of defensive staples, such as Woolsworth, Tsingtao and Wong Wong. With regards to telco plays, I am unsure with those names as mix plays have been coming about the last few session.
Considering last night's run in crude, I do expect some opening strength with OSH, AED, Origin and Santos in AU, and Cnooc and Sinopec in HK. Though I may question their strength throughout the day.
I remain favouring precious metal plays and would go long in silver or gold, though I prefer gold over silver, given silver already reached highs. Industrial metals play may rise today given that china Industrial Production figures comes out today, and as people went into the factory investment theme yesterday. I would favour Jingxi Copper and MRE.
Thats about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Tuesday, 12 May 2009
120509 Asia Close
Tuesday, 12 May 2009
Afternoon all,
Asia closed well within expectation, with Nikkei down 1.62^, Kospi down 0.89%, TSEC down 3.23% and ASX down 1.24%. HSI, by midday, was down 1.74% but afternoon session pulled it back up 0.38%, led by HSBC (5.hk) (+1.82%), Cheung Kong (1.hk) (+1.80%), Hutchison (13.hk)( +4.37%) and CCB (+1.63%).
Back again, a sign of cautious came into play, with defensive utilities play, CLP (3.hk) up 1.76%, and HK & China Gas up 3.79%. Telco play was a mix story, China Mobile up 1.39%, while China telecom down 1.93%, and China Unicom down 1.19%. Consumer staples ended slightly up, with tsingtao () up 1.7%.
Financials were mostly down today, with ICBC down 1.70%, however, as mentioned before, CCB took its way from the bottom to end up 1.63%.
Autos were also dragging down as investors profit take on dongfeng (489.hk)'s run, ending down 6.70%, and Denway Motors (203.hk) down 3.59%, but Geely (175.hk), again, ran the separate way, going up 4.17%.
The oil sector rebounded from its bottom, with Cnooc ending down 0.82%, while sinopec bounced back up to 1.15% gain.
Special mention goes to the ports play, given that data came out, it did not help them much. Cosco tested the support line, ending back up 0.62%, while China Merchant did a bit of catch up, going under 2.75% (while bottomed at -5%).
ASX ended roughly in line within expectatation, as market tampering off from profit taking. Financials, in general, dragged the market lower, with Macquarie Group (MQG.ax) ending down 5.56%. Materials headed down south, with BHP down 2.75%, and Rio down 1.15%. Fortescue hit some technical sells after a strong rally yesterday, down 6.19%.
Defensive also didnt hold out in AU, as Telstra and Singtel also went down 0.63% and 1.61% respectively, however, given their recent run, this is quite reasonable. AGL and WOW went slightly up, 0.55% and 0.78%, showing how cautiousness is looking for sector rotation back into more defensive plays.
happy trading!
ongy out.
Asia closed well within expectation, with Nikkei down 1.62^, Kospi down 0.89%, TSEC down 3.23% and ASX down 1.24%. HSI, by midday, was down 1.74% but afternoon session pulled it back up 0.38%, led by HSBC (5.hk) (+1.82%), Cheung Kong (1.hk) (+1.80%), Hutchison (13.hk)( +4.37%) and CCB (+1.63%).
Back again, a sign of cautious came into play, with defensive utilities play, CLP (3.hk) up 1.76%, and HK & China Gas up 3.79%. Telco play was a mix story, China Mobile up 1.39%, while China telecom down 1.93%, and China Unicom down 1.19%. Consumer staples ended slightly up, with tsingtao () up 1.7%.
Financials were mostly down today, with ICBC down 1.70%, however, as mentioned before, CCB took its way from the bottom to end up 1.63%.
Autos were also dragging down as investors profit take on dongfeng (489.hk)'s run, ending down 6.70%, and Denway Motors (203.hk) down 3.59%, but Geely (175.hk), again, ran the separate way, going up 4.17%.
The oil sector rebounded from its bottom, with Cnooc ending down 0.82%, while sinopec bounced back up to 1.15% gain.
Special mention goes to the ports play, given that data came out, it did not help them much. Cosco tested the support line, ending back up 0.62%, while China Merchant did a bit of catch up, going under 2.75% (while bottomed at -5%).
ASX ended roughly in line within expectatation, as market tampering off from profit taking. Financials, in general, dragged the market lower, with Macquarie Group (MQG.ax) ending down 5.56%. Materials headed down south, with BHP down 2.75%, and Rio down 1.15%. Fortescue hit some technical sells after a strong rally yesterday, down 6.19%.
Defensive also didnt hold out in AU, as Telstra and Singtel also went down 0.63% and 1.61% respectively, however, given their recent run, this is quite reasonable. AGL and WOW went slightly up, 0.55% and 0.78%, showing how cautiousness is looking for sector rotation back into more defensive plays.
happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
120509 FTSE Open
Morning all,
Just going to be very brief over todays brief.
Seeing leads from Asia tampering off from profit taking and risk aversion over valuation, we will probably see this going through to Europe, as futures, again, points downwards. Currency lead is kind of becoming a little ineffective given that dollar continues to weaken from fundamentals. Though we do see crude and commodities to go down the water, which may hint that investors are ready to pull back from the upleg.
We continue to remain bears on banks ever since we started this blog. A key thing to note is that fundamentals have not change dramatically. Banks remain in need of capital, though the stress test is there to "reassure" our confidence. We may see more downside from financials, and I remain to call shorts on HSBC (hsba.ln), Standard Chartered (STAN.ln). RBS will also go down as Credit Suisse called on a sell rating today.
Oil stocks and material stocks will follow its underlying leads, going further south as investors will profit take from recent rally, as concerns over the speed of this "recovery" is questionable.
Defensive names may fair better, and, if, one prefers the equity market over others, this is where I would head my money. Tesco and Sainsbury will be good for holding, but would nota advice a long after the market has rallied so hard.
I personally remain a bull over precious metals, and I would look for longing gold and silver, though I would not attempt to look into gold companies as problems may continue to linger over finance problems.
I would look for ftse to continue to fall for another 0.5% - 1%, after it finished off down 0.6% yesterday.
happy trading!
ongy out.
Just going to be very brief over todays brief.
Seeing leads from Asia tampering off from profit taking and risk aversion over valuation, we will probably see this going through to Europe, as futures, again, points downwards. Currency lead is kind of becoming a little ineffective given that dollar continues to weaken from fundamentals. Though we do see crude and commodities to go down the water, which may hint that investors are ready to pull back from the upleg.
We continue to remain bears on banks ever since we started this blog. A key thing to note is that fundamentals have not change dramatically. Banks remain in need of capital, though the stress test is there to "reassure" our confidence. We may see more downside from financials, and I remain to call shorts on HSBC (hsba.ln), Standard Chartered (STAN.ln). RBS will also go down as Credit Suisse called on a sell rating today.
Oil stocks and material stocks will follow its underlying leads, going further south as investors will profit take from recent rally, as concerns over the speed of this "recovery" is questionable.
Defensive names may fair better, and, if, one prefers the equity market over others, this is where I would head my money. Tesco and Sainsbury will be good for holding, but would nota advice a long after the market has rallied so hard.
I personally remain a bull over precious metals, and I would look for longing gold and silver, though I would not attempt to look into gold companies as problems may continue to linger over finance problems.
I would look for ftse to continue to fall for another 0.5% - 1%, after it finished off down 0.6% yesterday.
happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
110509 Asia Close Wrap up
Afternoon all,
Something went wrong with the blog this afternoon, I couldn't post it up. Anyhows, the market went pretty much according to prediction, as ASX went down by -0.4%, while the afternoon session saw HSI, which went up 1.66% in the morning, to see it down -1.77%. Some shorts piling up...!! However, Nikkei and Kospi ended flat.
The calls were quite on the spot, as the market tampered off in the afternoon, with CNOOC and SINOPEC got sold off in the afternoon session, while HSBC also retreated from its 3% gain back to flat. The China bank slowing down its spending, which was released by PBOC this afternoon, certainly verifies the condition, which lead the red banks to go down deep in the afternoon session. China Construction Bank (CCB) lead the pack and fell heavily.
Angang held its gains today, however, Zijin Mining went under the water, going down 5.32% for the session.
Dongfeng also held its gains today, though was down approximately 3.5% from the highs of the day.
Thats about it today!
ongy out.
Something went wrong with the blog this afternoon, I couldn't post it up. Anyhows, the market went pretty much according to prediction, as ASX went down by -0.4%, while the afternoon session saw HSI, which went up 1.66% in the morning, to see it down -1.77%. Some shorts piling up...!! However, Nikkei and Kospi ended flat.
The calls were quite on the spot, as the market tampered off in the afternoon, with CNOOC and SINOPEC got sold off in the afternoon session, while HSBC also retreated from its 3% gain back to flat. The China bank slowing down its spending, which was released by PBOC this afternoon, certainly verifies the condition, which lead the red banks to go down deep in the afternoon session. China Construction Bank (CCB) lead the pack and fell heavily.
Angang held its gains today, however, Zijin Mining went under the water, going down 5.32% for the session.
Dongfeng also held its gains today, though was down approximately 3.5% from the highs of the day.
Thats about it today!
ongy out.
0 comments
Monday, 11 May 2009
110509 Asia Market Opener
Monday, 11 May 2009
Morning all,
Again, as per Dive2Blue, would firstly like to apologize again for our lack of updates due to our mounting workload over last week.
Now, briefly over today, surely there are many positive data coming out of US, that may, possibly, indicate some sort of bottoming out, though, from my opinion, I will remain skepticla and cautious over this notion. However, we may not deny that the market had significantly rallied from the March 9 bottom, and we have a general 20-30% recovery across the globe, but due to this, I will remain cautious over this week's movement.
Crude had broke the 55 range mark, and slowdown in employment data boosted the market on Friday night, having a gain of 1.96% on DJIA, 2.41% on S&P500 and 1.33% on NASDAQ. Clearly energy and financials were the major winners, gaining 15.85% and 13.50% respectively.
We may anticipate some follow through this morning, however, I do believe the market will turnaround, again, like HSI on friday, where shorts on the market builds up. This notion may also continue for this week as investors seek to profit take from the 20-30% runs. Hence, we believe Asia, across the board, will finish down 0.5- 1%% today.
Therefore, I believe that shorts on oil-related stocks, like CNOOC (883.hk) and Sinopec (386.hk). I would like to also see shorts on HSBC (5.hk) and Standard and Chartered Bank (2888.hk). Various China-related financial sectors may also drag on the market given that China continues to slam breaks on credit.
However, we see opportunity remains in steel stocks remain attractive due to government stimulus effect and inventory slowing clearing, which suggest production will be needed soon. A further reasoning comes to the rumours that automakers seeking opportunity to acquire foreign automakers may also stimulate this sector. We remain to see Angang(347.hk) and Magang (323.hk) to stay ahead in the market. Moreover, some autos may still be an outlook, and I personally like Dongfeng (489.hk).
Precious metal plays remain to be one of our favourites, as per the reasoning discussed by Dive2Blue. Therefore, we see longs into gold and zijin mining (2899.hk) to be attractive.
Dive2Blue remains bullish over ports and wholesales distributors, because of the pending "recovery".
Again, as per Dive2Blue, would firstly like to apologize again for our lack of updates due to our mounting workload over last week.
Now, briefly over today, surely there are many positive data coming out of US, that may, possibly, indicate some sort of bottoming out, though, from my opinion, I will remain skepticla and cautious over this notion. However, we may not deny that the market had significantly rallied from the March 9 bottom, and we have a general 20-30% recovery across the globe, but due to this, I will remain cautious over this week's movement.
Crude had broke the 55 range mark, and slowdown in employment data boosted the market on Friday night, having a gain of 1.96% on DJIA, 2.41% on S&P500 and 1.33% on NASDAQ. Clearly energy and financials were the major winners, gaining 15.85% and 13.50% respectively.
We may anticipate some follow through this morning, however, I do believe the market will turnaround, again, like HSI on friday, where shorts on the market builds up. This notion may also continue for this week as investors seek to profit take from the 20-30% runs. Hence, we believe Asia, across the board, will finish down 0.5- 1%% today.
Therefore, I believe that shorts on oil-related stocks, like CNOOC (883.hk) and Sinopec (386.hk). I would like to also see shorts on HSBC (5.hk) and Standard and Chartered Bank (2888.hk). Various China-related financial sectors may also drag on the market given that China continues to slam breaks on credit.
However, we see opportunity remains in steel stocks remain attractive due to government stimulus effect and inventory slowing clearing, which suggest production will be needed soon. A further reasoning comes to the rumours that automakers seeking opportunity to acquire foreign automakers may also stimulate this sector. We remain to see Angang(347.hk) and Magang (323.hk) to stay ahead in the market. Moreover, some autos may still be an outlook, and I personally like Dongfeng (489.hk).
Precious metal plays remain to be one of our favourites, as per the reasoning discussed by Dive2Blue. Therefore, we see longs into gold and zijin mining (2899.hk) to be attractive.
Dive2Blue remains bullish over ports and wholesales distributors, because of the pending "recovery".
0 comments
Friday, 8 May 2009
Apologies
Friday, 8 May 2009
Hello everyone,
Sorry about the lack of updates... We've been really preoccupied with work at the moment to be able to update this blog. Hopefully this weekend we can give you all a general overview of what happened today and what we expect to happen in the coming weeks, as we have also begun to undertake our strategy to actively be engaged in the market, and will inform you of our trades as they happen.
Regards and I do apologize again on behalf of ongy and myself,
Dive2Blue
Sorry about the lack of updates... We've been really preoccupied with work at the moment to be able to update this blog. Hopefully this weekend we can give you all a general overview of what happened today and what we expect to happen in the coming weeks, as we have also begun to undertake our strategy to actively be engaged in the market, and will inform you of our trades as they happen.
Regards and I do apologize again on behalf of ongy and myself,
Dive2Blue
0 comments
070509 Asia Close Wrap
Afternoon all,
Know this wrap is a bit late, but nevertheless, having some wrap is better than not having any!
Anyway, HSI tipped the top today, and got a lot of short sells towards the late session of the day! So, what does that mean? Profit takers are coming into the game, and many are exiting position prior to this stress test that is due overnight tonight.
HSBC was the sole blue chip out there that saved the world, by itself rising up 5%! This contributes to roughly 1% of HSI today! Hey, who said the elephant would fall? JPM actually revalued their target for HSBC to $108, though I'm slightly skeptical over this. However, in fundamental terms, then HSBC is still considered relatively cheap as of today, let alone a month or so back! So near term, I do personally believe it may reach towards 75, but that will be some sense of resistance then.
Nevertheless, around the sectors, many got sold off in afternoon session, with Cheung Kong, Hutchison and Swire all going deep down in the reds in the afternoon. Commodity plays all cooled off from early head start, with Angang finishing down 2%, when was up approximately 2%. Sinopec was also one of the stocks that got heavy profit taking today, while CNOOC tamper off its 3% high down to up 1.66%.
Defensives worked its way back from the reads, with tsingtao leading up 2.74%. The telcos all suffered from extreme profit taking after the 3 days of 5-10% rallies. Unicom down 4.72% while China Mobile ends pretty flat, up 0.61%.
One trade that worth special mentioning was Geely. As per last week, I had calls on Geely, and adviced that the deal talks will emerge from the market, and as of today, this eventuated. Holding thus far, in hindsight, would have obtained +58.89% at a high, and still would yield +44.44% if sticking to my strategy. To me, this trade now is done and settle, too late to enter in. Whoever still has Geely should try and get out of it as soon as possible.
Moving towards ASX, the day ended up 1.82%. ASX. again, to me, seems slightly lagged, as commodity plays did not tamper off from highs, when we expected profit takers to come in, it did not eventuate.Banks were a mix bag, but generally up. Financials, especially the insurance did well. As an expectation, I believe ASX will experience some headwinds tomorrow.
As an overnight play, I believe that the overnight market should have a bearish tone, as people would like to reposition themselves for the upcoming data and certainly would like to bank on some of the hefty profits that are avaliable. It would not be suprising to see much of the industrial metals and crude to drop, while financials may possibly drag on the market. If so, I see defensive plays for tomorrow to be the buyer, and this may spark some retreats in the market.
Aside from that, good luck, and happy trading!
ongy out.
Know this wrap is a bit late, but nevertheless, having some wrap is better than not having any!
Anyway, HSI tipped the top today, and got a lot of short sells towards the late session of the day! So, what does that mean? Profit takers are coming into the game, and many are exiting position prior to this stress test that is due overnight tonight.
HSBC was the sole blue chip out there that saved the world, by itself rising up 5%! This contributes to roughly 1% of HSI today! Hey, who said the elephant would fall? JPM actually revalued their target for HSBC to $108, though I'm slightly skeptical over this. However, in fundamental terms, then HSBC is still considered relatively cheap as of today, let alone a month or so back! So near term, I do personally believe it may reach towards 75, but that will be some sense of resistance then.
Nevertheless, around the sectors, many got sold off in afternoon session, with Cheung Kong, Hutchison and Swire all going deep down in the reds in the afternoon. Commodity plays all cooled off from early head start, with Angang finishing down 2%, when was up approximately 2%. Sinopec was also one of the stocks that got heavy profit taking today, while CNOOC tamper off its 3% high down to up 1.66%.
Defensives worked its way back from the reads, with tsingtao leading up 2.74%. The telcos all suffered from extreme profit taking after the 3 days of 5-10% rallies. Unicom down 4.72% while China Mobile ends pretty flat, up 0.61%.
One trade that worth special mentioning was Geely. As per last week, I had calls on Geely, and adviced that the deal talks will emerge from the market, and as of today, this eventuated. Holding thus far, in hindsight, would have obtained +58.89% at a high, and still would yield +44.44% if sticking to my strategy. To me, this trade now is done and settle, too late to enter in. Whoever still has Geely should try and get out of it as soon as possible.
Moving towards ASX, the day ended up 1.82%. ASX. again, to me, seems slightly lagged, as commodity plays did not tamper off from highs, when we expected profit takers to come in, it did not eventuate.Banks were a mix bag, but generally up. Financials, especially the insurance did well. As an expectation, I believe ASX will experience some headwinds tomorrow.
As an overnight play, I believe that the overnight market should have a bearish tone, as people would like to reposition themselves for the upcoming data and certainly would like to bank on some of the hefty profits that are avaliable. It would not be suprising to see much of the industrial metals and crude to drop, while financials may possibly drag on the market. If so, I see defensive plays for tomorrow to be the buyer, and this may spark some retreats in the market.
Aside from that, good luck, and happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Thursday, 7 May 2009
US Wrap & Asia Opening 070509
Thursday, 7 May 2009
Morning all,
Well last night we saw the US stage an end of the day rally fuelled by "positive US job data" and expectations that the required capital needed by banks was not as high as the stress tests have indicated. Well I do find this completely contradictory to expectations and the market movement in the past two months, given that oil has passed the $55 barrier it seems that a bullish sentiment has taken hold. I still do believe in long term fundamental weaknesses in the US economy plus the fact that Rich Americans have begun defaulting (Bloomberg) on loans... this is beginning to say a lot for the general economy. However, as stated I will re-evaluate our bearish sentiment to see if it still does hold.
Today's Asian opening should follow the US, with the Nikkei (which I do believe opens today) expected to jump very high upon opening. With regards to room for trading, I see a very tight margin from 9-10AM which would lead to an overrun in the market. By midday most stocks should be valued at par with the expected gains from the US market. I do see a further downside in commodities and oil which I feel will not be reflected till later in the day as Asia plays catch up with the US. I see a general 1-2% green for asia in general, with the Nikkei potentially topping 5%.
Sectorwise, I feel the commodities and oil sector will experience a draw back as I expect themt o continue to decline with oil being slightly overplayed (back to the $55 level). I see very high upside for gold in the near future, in both bull and bear scenarios given the excess liquidity that has plagued the market recently. I see power players in positive territory today given positive sentiment on production and my view on commodities (esp coal).
0902 HK Huaneng Power Intl', I call a BUY I feel that it has suffered enough speculation about its recent carbon pricing risk for the moment and will benefit from the positive sentiment and the drawback on coal prices. I put SELL call on CNOOC 0083 HK by midday, as I believe it will decline by then. I also put a BUY on China Merchants 0144 as an anticipated US recovery will spur the shipping and ports sector.
I do feel the Nikkei will be rather diffcult to gauge today due to the catch up of the holiday effect, prices will move very fast.
For the ASX I see opportunities financials with a buy call on ANZ, I would avoid MQG due to it's recent positive performance despite a string of bad news.
With regards to overnight picks... I would say be on the lookout to pick up opportunities in defensives like SP AusNet, Huaneng, China Merchants
Well last night we saw the US stage an end of the day rally fuelled by "positive US job data" and expectations that the required capital needed by banks was not as high as the stress tests have indicated. Well I do find this completely contradictory to expectations and the market movement in the past two months, given that oil has passed the $55 barrier it seems that a bullish sentiment has taken hold. I still do believe in long term fundamental weaknesses in the US economy plus the fact that Rich Americans have begun defaulting (Bloomberg) on loans... this is beginning to say a lot for the general economy. However, as stated I will re-evaluate our bearish sentiment to see if it still does hold.
Today's Asian opening should follow the US, with the Nikkei (which I do believe opens today) expected to jump very high upon opening. With regards to room for trading, I see a very tight margin from 9-10AM which would lead to an overrun in the market. By midday most stocks should be valued at par with the expected gains from the US market. I do see a further downside in commodities and oil which I feel will not be reflected till later in the day as Asia plays catch up with the US. I see a general 1-2% green for asia in general, with the Nikkei potentially topping 5%.
Sectorwise, I feel the commodities and oil sector will experience a draw back as I expect themt o continue to decline with oil being slightly overplayed (back to the $55 level). I see very high upside for gold in the near future, in both bull and bear scenarios given the excess liquidity that has plagued the market recently. I see power players in positive territory today given positive sentiment on production and my view on commodities (esp coal).
0902 HK Huaneng Power Intl', I call a BUY I feel that it has suffered enough speculation about its recent carbon pricing risk for the moment and will benefit from the positive sentiment and the drawback on coal prices. I put SELL call on CNOOC 0083 HK by midday, as I believe it will decline by then. I also put a BUY on China Merchants 0144 as an anticipated US recovery will spur the shipping and ports sector.
I do feel the Nikkei will be rather diffcult to gauge today due to the catch up of the holiday effect, prices will move very fast.
For the ASX I see opportunities financials with a buy call on ANZ, I would avoid MQG due to it's recent positive performance despite a string of bad news.
With regards to overnight picks... I would say be on the lookout to pick up opportunities in defensives like SP AusNet, Huaneng, China Merchants
0 comments
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
060509 US Open
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
Morning all,
Must give my sincere apologies over my lack of ability to continue this wrap throughout the last few days. Though I have been away, I'm sure Dive2Blue has provided enough wrap to continue to place our views and opinions over the market for you.
Since US has already opened as we speak, I'll just give some brief views over our opinion. Again, we experienced some "positive" data that MAY point towards some "bottoming", though I personally remain skeptical over this concept. The job loss exceeded the economist's forecast of 645,000, by only 451,000, as per a private report.
We remain to see this banking jitters, despite Bernanke and various respected individuals like Michael Paulos, head of Oliver Wyman financial services, have came out to speak of a financial sector recovery, we remain taking the view that the bank recovery may still be illusionary. We remain to see the actual results of the bank's stress test, which, if the results are worse than expectations, may trigger a vapourisation of confidence. We got a taste of it this morning with BoA claiming it needs further capital raising to meet its captal requirement. We may expect similar claims over these coming days with other banks that may proclaim such statements too.
Now, we continue to remain to see this consumer credit problem, and possibly another round of fiscal stimulus. So, on the medium term, we continue to remain bearish.
However, over the last two days, it is clear that market confidence has not faded. This clear risk appetite returning theme has dominated the market. Given today's unexpected data, that may drive the market away from the negative territory, however, I do believe it will end slightly down, if not flat, as I remain to be cautious and believe the market will take profit. The market should also, probably, price into the stress test result as of tomorrow in the late trading session.
I'll end it here today. Happy trading!
ongy out.
Must give my sincere apologies over my lack of ability to continue this wrap throughout the last few days. Though I have been away, I'm sure Dive2Blue has provided enough wrap to continue to place our views and opinions over the market for you.
Since US has already opened as we speak, I'll just give some brief views over our opinion. Again, we experienced some "positive" data that MAY point towards some "bottoming", though I personally remain skeptical over this concept. The job loss exceeded the economist's forecast of 645,000, by only 451,000, as per a private report.
We remain to see this banking jitters, despite Bernanke and various respected individuals like Michael Paulos, head of Oliver Wyman financial services, have came out to speak of a financial sector recovery, we remain taking the view that the bank recovery may still be illusionary. We remain to see the actual results of the bank's stress test, which, if the results are worse than expectations, may trigger a vapourisation of confidence. We got a taste of it this morning with BoA claiming it needs further capital raising to meet its captal requirement. We may expect similar claims over these coming days with other banks that may proclaim such statements too.
Now, we continue to remain to see this consumer credit problem, and possibly another round of fiscal stimulus. So, on the medium term, we continue to remain bearish.
However, over the last two days, it is clear that market confidence has not faded. This clear risk appetite returning theme has dominated the market. Given today's unexpected data, that may drive the market away from the negative territory, however, I do believe it will end slightly down, if not flat, as I remain to be cautious and believe the market will take profit. The market should also, probably, price into the stress test result as of tomorrow in the late trading session.
I'll end it here today. Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
Asia Morning Opener
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
Morning all,
Ongy's a bit tied up this morning, so I will be covering for him really quick...
Well, wow the US climbed over 2%, with Wells Fargo up 24%!!! I feel that Buffet's comments were highly speculative however, he may be a legacy but then again people do make mistakes... Well Well's may be a good bank, the upgrade of the sector buy GS draws questions however, especially after Buffet did lamblast the sector in general. The rest is understandable with a carry over of optimism from Asia, given the positive economic data. We do draw questions on if it is sustainable or is it just the effect of the stimulus on the economy... we present fears on the consumer credit bubble still rising despite attempts to curb it; I personally still see Oil @ 55 as a resistance pt.
For Asia, Japan remains closed today... I do also see some profit taking given all the optimism in the market, and yesterday's crazy rally. Depending on the carry over effect on the US I do expect Asia to be flattish today. Again I maintain my stand on the overplay of the inventory and manufacturing card, I do believe that we have a herding effect again. For specific sector calls, Financials should be flattish, I do see a retreat in cyclicals today... thus am positive on the defensive sector as investors seek to avoid the excess risk and volatility present in the market.
At this point I do not see strength in the Chinese power market however, given the risk of a commodity price rise (Specifically coal).
I believe the Geely auto card has been overplayed at this point as well thus I call a "sell on Geely"
Buy on HK & Gas
Buy on Tsingtao (Chinese beer man!!)
for HSBC I see an early green followed by a steady decline as well as investors shift their position following the stock being over played, with a midday sell call.
Provided no new data comes out these are our current calls...
ASX, I see Rio lower as news has settled in and I expect the commodities market to retreat in line with my bear stance and the overplay on data recently.
SELL RIO
BUY SPAUSNET
which I see as two strong defensive stocks today in the market
Also a HUGE SELL ON MQG.... yesterday's -10% loss to a 1% gain has spooked me on that regard.
I do believe however, a re-evaluation of my stance will be required if oil surpasses the 55 resistance line.
Ongy's a bit tied up this morning, so I will be covering for him really quick...
Well, wow the US climbed over 2%, with Wells Fargo up 24%!!! I feel that Buffet's comments were highly speculative however, he may be a legacy but then again people do make mistakes... Well Well's may be a good bank, the upgrade of the sector buy GS draws questions however, especially after Buffet did lamblast the sector in general. The rest is understandable with a carry over of optimism from Asia, given the positive economic data. We do draw questions on if it is sustainable or is it just the effect of the stimulus on the economy... we present fears on the consumer credit bubble still rising despite attempts to curb it; I personally still see Oil @ 55 as a resistance pt.
For Asia, Japan remains closed today... I do also see some profit taking given all the optimism in the market, and yesterday's crazy rally. Depending on the carry over effect on the US I do expect Asia to be flattish today. Again I maintain my stand on the overplay of the inventory and manufacturing card, I do believe that we have a herding effect again. For specific sector calls, Financials should be flattish, I do see a retreat in cyclicals today... thus am positive on the defensive sector as investors seek to avoid the excess risk and volatility present in the market.
At this point I do not see strength in the Chinese power market however, given the risk of a commodity price rise (Specifically coal).
I believe the Geely auto card has been overplayed at this point as well thus I call a "sell on Geely"
Buy on HK & Gas
Buy on Tsingtao (Chinese beer man!!)
for HSBC I see an early green followed by a steady decline as well as investors shift their position following the stock being over played, with a midday sell call.
Provided no new data comes out these are our current calls...
ASX, I see Rio lower as news has settled in and I expect the commodities market to retreat in line with my bear stance and the overplay on data recently.
SELL RIO
BUY SPAUSNET
which I see as two strong defensive stocks today in the market
Also a HUGE SELL ON MQG.... yesterday's -10% loss to a 1% gain has spooked me on that regard.
I do believe however, a re-evaluation of my stance will be required if oil surpasses the 55 resistance line.
0 comments
Monday, 4 May 2009
FTSE 040409 OPENER
Monday, 4 May 2009
Hey all,
Sorry about the lack of coverage in the past few periods, been a busy time for ongy and myself.
Anyway as of midday today Asia seems to be in very deep green levels with the HSI above 4% and ASX above 2%.
Macquarie Group also seems to have recovered from their drop earlier on today.
Despite all this however, I view Europe as having a different story especially with the riots and damaged that happened over labour day. For automakers like Fiat it may be an up day; however, despite positive data from Asia due to growth, I do not see the same happening in Europe. With the UK recession worsening I see financials in a weak position early in the day, despite the falling credit spreads which I feel could start dragging down the Asian market. I am slightly positive on energy and commodity plays today in Asia carrying over to Europe however (with an eye on RIO and ALCOA). I do agree with ongy that the market situation now is being flooded with positive sentiment, and do feel that there is a need to be cautious with regards to the question has the economy bottomed out.
Personally at this point I see despite positive manufacturing and economic data, the core of the situation being unemployment and rising consumer credit problems will pull the economy back down. I feel that the positive data is part and parcel of the current business cycle where inventories will naturally deplete (more so due to gov. intervention and stimulus) and does need to be restocked; however, I do not feel that this upcycle will be sustainable for much longer. I essence for a recovery to occur, consumer spending must recover first which would in turn spur investment... I also am bullish on Gold at the moment as inflationary fears and pressure begin to become imminent, and it all depends on the fed's ability to control money supply effectively.
I call a buy on BP/RDSA, RIO and NG
a sell on GSK as the swine flu scare is beginning to taper off despite rising pandemic alert levels
sell on MKS and BARC as well
And from my previous call on AccorMittal (MT) in the US opener later to sell off at a price of $26.
Sorry about the lack of coverage in the past few periods, been a busy time for ongy and myself.
Anyway as of midday today Asia seems to be in very deep green levels with the HSI above 4% and ASX above 2%.
Macquarie Group also seems to have recovered from their drop earlier on today.
Despite all this however, I view Europe as having a different story especially with the riots and damaged that happened over labour day. For automakers like Fiat it may be an up day; however, despite positive data from Asia due to growth, I do not see the same happening in Europe. With the UK recession worsening I see financials in a weak position early in the day, despite the falling credit spreads which I feel could start dragging down the Asian market. I am slightly positive on energy and commodity plays today in Asia carrying over to Europe however (with an eye on RIO and ALCOA). I do agree with ongy that the market situation now is being flooded with positive sentiment, and do feel that there is a need to be cautious with regards to the question has the economy bottomed out.
Personally at this point I see despite positive manufacturing and economic data, the core of the situation being unemployment and rising consumer credit problems will pull the economy back down. I feel that the positive data is part and parcel of the current business cycle where inventories will naturally deplete (more so due to gov. intervention and stimulus) and does need to be restocked; however, I do not feel that this upcycle will be sustainable for much longer. I essence for a recovery to occur, consumer spending must recover first which would in turn spur investment... I also am bullish on Gold at the moment as inflationary fears and pressure begin to become imminent, and it all depends on the fed's ability to control money supply effectively.
I call a buy on BP/RDSA, RIO and NG
a sell on GSK as the swine flu scare is beginning to taper off despite rising pandemic alert levels
sell on MKS and BARC as well
And from my previous call on AccorMittal (MT) in the US opener later to sell off at a price of $26.
3 comments
Asia 040509 Morning Wrap
Morning. Firstly, to apologize over the lack of update for the last two days.
Getting into the topic, more financial jitters are coming into the market, placing emphasis that the stress test may fail to restore confidence in financial institutions as many banks, including big names such as Citigroup and BoA continues to require capital boosting through various options, such as transferring the government's preferred shares into common equity, as described by Geithner. As seen on Friday in US, more shorts came on the financial market, weighing on the market. This is further confirmed by Buffet's opinion over the stress test.
Although we expect this lead to continue in Asia today, however, I would personally put a halt on all the shorts and step out on the sideline, especially after ASEAN has declared to inject a further $120bn into East Asia as a mean to prevent the real economy to fall through. This basically means another, even bigger, stimulus package is coming into play around Asia, and may spark some optimism in Asia today. Note however, some markets are not opened due to the golden week holiday, which may induce some quietness in the market.
Again, despite some negative views over the upcoming events, we have mixed results from economic data that points to some glimpse of hope. The US GDP has shown signs of demand picking back up and ISM factory index rose to 40.1 in April from 36.3 in March, however, job losses continues to rise, while auto sales has plunged 34%. Given the mixed results coming into play, we are inclined to question the validity of a recovery since this may "consumption boost" may merely reflect a stimulus effect that may not last.
Given this mixed plays ahead of this week, our view remains bearish. We would advice to capitalise over the gains from the last few weeks.
As per some individual plays, we remain to see oppotunities in Geely Auto (175.hk), while a sell on MQG is recommended. We also see opportunity in more defensive stocks in Asia, such as HK & China Gas (3.hk).
Happy trading.
ongy out.
Getting into the topic, more financial jitters are coming into the market, placing emphasis that the stress test may fail to restore confidence in financial institutions as many banks, including big names such as Citigroup and BoA continues to require capital boosting through various options, such as transferring the government's preferred shares into common equity, as described by Geithner. As seen on Friday in US, more shorts came on the financial market, weighing on the market. This is further confirmed by Buffet's opinion over the stress test.
Although we expect this lead to continue in Asia today, however, I would personally put a halt on all the shorts and step out on the sideline, especially after ASEAN has declared to inject a further $120bn into East Asia as a mean to prevent the real economy to fall through. This basically means another, even bigger, stimulus package is coming into play around Asia, and may spark some optimism in Asia today. Note however, some markets are not opened due to the golden week holiday, which may induce some quietness in the market.
Again, despite some negative views over the upcoming events, we have mixed results from economic data that points to some glimpse of hope. The US GDP has shown signs of demand picking back up and ISM factory index rose to 40.1 in April from 36.3 in March, however, job losses continues to rise, while auto sales has plunged 34%. Given the mixed results coming into play, we are inclined to question the validity of a recovery since this may "consumption boost" may merely reflect a stimulus effect that may not last.
Given this mixed plays ahead of this week, our view remains bearish. We would advice to capitalise over the gains from the last few weeks.
As per some individual plays, we remain to see oppotunities in Geely Auto (175.hk), while a sell on MQG is recommended. We also see opportunity in more defensive stocks in Asia, such as HK & China Gas (3.hk).
Happy trading.
ongy out.
0 comments
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
290409 FTSE Midday and US Open Wrap
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Morning all,
Apologies from both of us again, as unfortunately, I guess the flu is really taking its toll on everyone. We'll make a brief one for today.
As of now, it seems as though investor appetite has increased as we observe the currency market lead.
Despite worse than expected GDP output, in conjunction of further negative news floating from the stress test, seems like US stocks shrugged off bad news for a rise after three down days for a technical rebounce. Bank rallied given that Fox-Pitt analysts upgraded banks, while optimism brought the commodities back up, taking Exxon Mobile and ConocoPhillips up. This may be a continual optimism thru Asia's positive earnings outlook.
We expect today to be a 1-2% up day for all the markets.
We will not call for picks today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Apologies from both of us again, as unfortunately, I guess the flu is really taking its toll on everyone. We'll make a brief one for today.
As of now, it seems as though investor appetite has increased as we observe the currency market lead.
Despite worse than expected GDP output, in conjunction of further negative news floating from the stress test, seems like US stocks shrugged off bad news for a rise after three down days for a technical rebounce. Bank rallied given that Fox-Pitt analysts upgraded banks, while optimism brought the commodities back up, taking Exxon Mobile and ConocoPhillips up. This may be a continual optimism thru Asia's positive earnings outlook.
We expect today to be a 1-2% up day for all the markets.
We will not call for picks today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Asia 290409 Mid Day Wrap
Afternoon!
First of all, my apologies for missing out the closing wrap for last night and morning wrap for this morning in Asia.
Coming towards midday for ASX and near opening for HSI, I would like to give a few brief comments over the marke today.
Some sense of optimism came by last night with the US giving suprising upside data over consumer sentiment that lifted the market up most of the time over the session. Furthermore, S&P/ Cash Shillers index has also indicated slowdown in the housing freefall, after dropping 20% from the peak, which points towards a possible bottoming in the housing prices. However, bank fears once again came in as a theme towards the end of the session over BoA and Citigroup's fear for the need of further capital raising to weather through this credit crisis. Swine flu may have continued to taking leads to drag the market lower despite the unexpected data.
Taking cue this morning, I'd have believe that financials would have followed lead and fall on worries over further raising of capital. This implies there are increasing cloudiness over the stress test result, as per discussed by us in earlier post. As in our previous post, we continue to maintain this bearish view over the current situation, and believe more bad debts will arise as a result of consumer credit problems.
Swine flu effect may probably continuing weighing on the market, with commodities, consumer cyclicals (airlines especially) and retails to further hit lower. We continue to favour defensive stocks, and especially healthcare names.
Taking leads from overnight, I believe the market will follow similar pattern, with all ending roughly 1% lower today. However, we may expect HSI to have a technical rebounce after 3 consecutive down session, we may expect it to finish flat or slightly up, within 1%.
Last comment, names we favour include Geely Auto (175.hk), Tsingtao (168.hk) and CLP Holdings (3.hk).
Thats it today. Happy trading!
ongy out.
First of all, my apologies for missing out the closing wrap for last night and morning wrap for this morning in Asia.
Coming towards midday for ASX and near opening for HSI, I would like to give a few brief comments over the marke today.
Some sense of optimism came by last night with the US giving suprising upside data over consumer sentiment that lifted the market up most of the time over the session. Furthermore, S&P/ Cash Shillers index has also indicated slowdown in the housing freefall, after dropping 20% from the peak, which points towards a possible bottoming in the housing prices. However, bank fears once again came in as a theme towards the end of the session over BoA and Citigroup's fear for the need of further capital raising to weather through this credit crisis. Swine flu may have continued to taking leads to drag the market lower despite the unexpected data.
Taking cue this morning, I'd have believe that financials would have followed lead and fall on worries over further raising of capital. This implies there are increasing cloudiness over the stress test result, as per discussed by us in earlier post. As in our previous post, we continue to maintain this bearish view over the current situation, and believe more bad debts will arise as a result of consumer credit problems.
Swine flu effect may probably continuing weighing on the market, with commodities, consumer cyclicals (airlines especially) and retails to further hit lower. We continue to favour defensive stocks, and especially healthcare names.
Taking leads from overnight, I believe the market will follow similar pattern, with all ending roughly 1% lower today. However, we may expect HSI to have a technical rebounce after 3 consecutive down session, we may expect it to finish flat or slightly up, within 1%.
Last comment, names we favour include Geely Auto (175.hk), Tsingtao (168.hk) and CLP Holdings (3.hk).
Thats it today. Happy trading!
ongy out.
1 comments
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
US 280409 Morning Wrap
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Hello,
The pessimistic sentiment has persevered in Europe, with the market still down by about 2% at this post...
We expect the US market to open in the red with financials like BoA and CITI leading the way down due to the recent adverse news that has appeared on them. We expect oil and commodity stocks to continue being hit by the effects of Swine Flu, though i see some positive correction in those stocks; travelling has reduced and Swine Flu begins to have its effect on the global economy which will continue to hit transportation stocks
Pharmaceuticals can expect another green day as the outbreak continues to persevere.
As for trading calls today, if the US follows the lead from Europe we can expect another red day; however, I do call this an ideal opportunity in looking out for defensive stocks that go red, as we reemphasize our defensive plays.
I conceed that my plays in Europe yesterday were a but premature, however for the US market, Auto's may still stage a mild recovery on speculation of asset sales.
My calls for today would be:-
DAI buy
XOM buy
MT buy
The pessimistic sentiment has persevered in Europe, with the market still down by about 2% at this post...
We expect the US market to open in the red with financials like BoA and CITI leading the way down due to the recent adverse news that has appeared on them. We expect oil and commodity stocks to continue being hit by the effects of Swine Flu, though i see some positive correction in those stocks; travelling has reduced and Swine Flu begins to have its effect on the global economy which will continue to hit transportation stocks
Pharmaceuticals can expect another green day as the outbreak continues to persevere.
As for trading calls today, if the US follows the lead from Europe we can expect another red day; however, I do call this an ideal opportunity in looking out for defensive stocks that go red, as we reemphasize our defensive plays.
I conceed that my plays in Europe yesterday were a but premature, however for the US market, Auto's may still stage a mild recovery on speculation of asset sales.
My calls for today would be:-
DAI buy
XOM buy
MT buy
1 comments
FTSE CLOSING 270409 & 280409 OPENING
Hello all,
I would like to apologize for the late closing wrap, it's been quite a busy period for me this week.
Well Europe staged a last minute rally driven by pharmaceuticals and defensives yesterday, this was all following a rally in the US market driven by GM, pharmaceuticals and defensive plays.
Financials in the UK ended mixed with HSBC down -2% and stocks like RBS up 3%
We expect oil stocks to be pushed even lower in today's trading, as there continues to be a downside for oil, as for the travel industry further downside is expected (I would also like to add that my momentum play on BA may have come too early, given the worsening situation of the swine flu).
I also see some continued upside in Pharma as the WHO has categorized the Flu as a lvl 4 pandemic (the highest rating so far). However, that may taper off by the end of the day.
For our existing positions I would take a:-
BA sell (to limit losses due to further potential downside)
MKS hold (I see upside occuring for retailers in the 2-3 day time span)
NG hold (Defensive stocks will continue to be strong in times like these, I may call a sell later in the day as the market picks up)
On an additional note we expect financials to be red today, given that BoA and CITI have been implicated as banks needing additional capital which will dampen optimism in the market.
Overall, we see another red day for Europe as the Swine Flu pandemic continues to escalate from yesterday.
Dive2Blue out.
I would like to apologize for the late closing wrap, it's been quite a busy period for me this week.
Well Europe staged a last minute rally driven by pharmaceuticals and defensives yesterday, this was all following a rally in the US market driven by GM, pharmaceuticals and defensive plays.
Financials in the UK ended mixed with HSBC down -2% and stocks like RBS up 3%
We expect oil stocks to be pushed even lower in today's trading, as there continues to be a downside for oil, as for the travel industry further downside is expected (I would also like to add that my momentum play on BA may have come too early, given the worsening situation of the swine flu).
I also see some continued upside in Pharma as the WHO has categorized the Flu as a lvl 4 pandemic (the highest rating so far). However, that may taper off by the end of the day.
For our existing positions I would take a:-
BA sell (to limit losses due to further potential downside)
MKS hold (I see upside occuring for retailers in the 2-3 day time span)
NG hold (Defensive stocks will continue to be strong in times like these, I may call a sell later in the day as the market picks up)
On an additional note we expect financials to be red today, given that BoA and CITI have been implicated as banks needing additional capital which will dampen optimism in the market.
Overall, we see another red day for Europe as the Swine Flu pandemic continues to escalate from yesterday.
Dive2Blue out.
0 comments
Asia 280409 Morning Wrap
Morning!
Overnight, the US took on a similar negative tone over the swine flu, taking the treasuries and the dollar slightly higher. The EUR, AUD has weakened against the dollar while yen has strengthened. We may take this as a short term riska version theme as investors try to take profit from recent rallies.
Taking cues from the US over swine flu effect, we continue to anticipate to anticipate a lower opening over Asia market. Futures on the market seem to confirm this view, with Nikkei pointing down 0.46% and HSI down 2.51%.
We may expect oil, lodging and airlines stocks to continue to be hit as the many fears this swine flu will become a global pandemic, however, I do personally believe that we will hit some technical stops after the pharmaceutical run yesterday. Moreover, this may also imply swine impacts on retail stocks, and so we would like to avoid this sector.
I believe we shall see HSI to go down another 1%, while Nikkei down 0.5%. ASX, I believe it will be ending slightly lower over the session.
The stock picks today revolves over defensive plays, however, as noted by Dive2Blue, the Chinese auto sector may see some increases over the coming few days over speculations on acquisitions. I would advise to examine over Geely Auto (175.HK) at $0.95 entry and Brilliance China Auto (1114.hk) at $0.55.
I would also favour a defensive play over telcos names like PCCW (8.hk) at $3.10 as company news came out over new management system may boost confidence in the company. Other defensive plays such as CLP Holdings (2.hk) and Hong Kong & China Gas (3.hk) is also favoured.
I will not enter the AU market today, as I believe it is slightly out of sync.
As noted yesterday, the precious gold play is now, in our opinion, out of favour. Hence, should continue to underweight.
Thats it for today.
Happy trading.
ongy out.
Overnight, the US took on a similar negative tone over the swine flu, taking the treasuries and the dollar slightly higher. The EUR, AUD has weakened against the dollar while yen has strengthened. We may take this as a short term riska version theme as investors try to take profit from recent rallies.
Taking cues from the US over swine flu effect, we continue to anticipate to anticipate a lower opening over Asia market. Futures on the market seem to confirm this view, with Nikkei pointing down 0.46% and HSI down 2.51%.
We may expect oil, lodging and airlines stocks to continue to be hit as the many fears this swine flu will become a global pandemic, however, I do personally believe that we will hit some technical stops after the pharmaceutical run yesterday. Moreover, this may also imply swine impacts on retail stocks, and so we would like to avoid this sector.
I believe we shall see HSI to go down another 1%, while Nikkei down 0.5%. ASX, I believe it will be ending slightly lower over the session.
The stock picks today revolves over defensive plays, however, as noted by Dive2Blue, the Chinese auto sector may see some increases over the coming few days over speculations on acquisitions. I would advise to examine over Geely Auto (175.HK) at $0.95 entry and Brilliance China Auto (1114.hk) at $0.55.
I would also favour a defensive play over telcos names like PCCW (8.hk) at $3.10 as company news came out over new management system may boost confidence in the company. Other defensive plays such as CLP Holdings (2.hk) and Hong Kong & China Gas (3.hk) is also favoured.
I will not enter the AU market today, as I believe it is slightly out of sync.
As noted yesterday, the precious gold play is now, in our opinion, out of favour. Hence, should continue to underweight.
Thats it for today.
Happy trading.
ongy out.
0 comments
US270409 After Market Wrap
Afternoon all,
Looks like we had a Swine flu day overshadowing the session, taking the market lower by -0.64%, -1.01% and -0.88% for DJ's, S&P 500 and Nasdaq respectively, dragging travel, energy and hotel companies lower, while healthcare took the week ahead as per Dive2Blue discussed. Oil stocks also got pushed lower as investor fears the flu will dampen oil demand from various sectors, for example, the airlines.
GM contributed to taking the market higher from its low for a brief moment, as it continues to accelerates to its cost cutting measures while cutting off their liabilties.
As per discussed by me earlier in the midday Asia session, we expected some optimism to linger in the morning, but we also anticipated a similar selloff situation will occur in the banking sector after the stress test results, despite the positive overtone of the results, as what we discussed as a typical selloff after news affect. Investors are becoming more skeptical over this report as banks retreated on concern government stress tests will force some lenders to raise more capital through various channels.
For the day, the discretionary sector down 1.81%. Financials and energy overweighted the market, down 3.18% and 1.79% respectively. Industrials were down 1.45% while the techs were also down 0.88%. More defensive plays turned out to outrun the market, with staples up 0.11%, healthcare up 0.91% and utilities up 0.86%. However, telcos were down slightly by 0.23%.
That's it for the summary. Happy trading!
ongy out.
Looks like we had a Swine flu day overshadowing the session, taking the market lower by -0.64%, -1.01% and -0.88% for DJ's, S&P 500 and Nasdaq respectively, dragging travel, energy and hotel companies lower, while healthcare took the week ahead as per Dive2Blue discussed. Oil stocks also got pushed lower as investor fears the flu will dampen oil demand from various sectors, for example, the airlines.
GM contributed to taking the market higher from its low for a brief moment, as it continues to accelerates to its cost cutting measures while cutting off their liabilties.
As per discussed by me earlier in the midday Asia session, we expected some optimism to linger in the morning, but we also anticipated a similar selloff situation will occur in the banking sector after the stress test results, despite the positive overtone of the results, as what we discussed as a typical selloff after news affect. Investors are becoming more skeptical over this report as banks retreated on concern government stress tests will force some lenders to raise more capital through various channels.
For the day, the discretionary sector down 1.81%. Financials and energy overweighted the market, down 3.18% and 1.79% respectively. Industrials were down 1.45% while the techs were also down 0.88%. More defensive plays turned out to outrun the market, with staples up 0.11%, healthcare up 0.91% and utilities up 0.86%. However, telcos were down slightly by 0.23%.
That's it for the summary. Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Monday, 27 April 2009
US Morning wrap 270409
Monday, 27 April 2009
Hey guys just a quick wrap on the US market tonite,
We expect financials to continue the bearish sentiment felt throughout Asia and Europe on the back of comments by Summers and the potential outbreak of Swine Flu on the economy.
We are bullish on US automakers on speculation that GM may be selling assets to Geely Auto (China). On a personal view however, I see downside for Japanese Automakers in Detriot upsides.
Swine Flu will drive down the travel industry, and push pharmaceutical companies higher today as well.
We expect the US market to follow the trend presented by Asia at the start of today with an estimated 2-3% downside especially as Mexican trade begins to become affected (US's 3rd largest trading partner)
Declines in Oil and Gold have also followed the US markets today, which prompts declines in companies like Exxon.
All this will follow with a shift towards defensives, which establishes our play for the week of a defensive pharmaceutical mix, with some upside on the US Automarket.
We continue to see further downside in financial markets.
Today calls are a sell on GSK ADR outstanding's position
Watch DAI for potential opportunities
Buy on GS due to their increased risk appetite, which I interpret as a positive sign due to more agressive expansion in realizing the opportunity for gains @ 123.5
We expect financials to continue the bearish sentiment felt throughout Asia and Europe on the back of comments by Summers and the potential outbreak of Swine Flu on the economy.
We are bullish on US automakers on speculation that GM may be selling assets to Geely Auto (China). On a personal view however, I see downside for Japanese Automakers in Detriot upsides.
Swine Flu will drive down the travel industry, and push pharmaceutical companies higher today as well.
We expect the US market to follow the trend presented by Asia at the start of today with an estimated 2-3% downside especially as Mexican trade begins to become affected (US's 3rd largest trading partner)
Declines in Oil and Gold have also followed the US markets today, which prompts declines in companies like Exxon.
All this will follow with a shift towards defensives, which establishes our play for the week of a defensive pharmaceutical mix, with some upside on the US Automarket.
We continue to see further downside in financial markets.
Today calls are a sell on GSK ADR outstanding's position
Watch DAI for potential opportunities
Buy on GS due to their increased risk appetite, which I interpret as a positive sign due to more agressive expansion in realizing the opportunity for gains @ 123.5
0 comments
Asia 270409 Afternoon Briefing
Hi All,
As per discussed this morning, we did see technical sell off in HSI in the morning as it went down approximately 1%, while ASX rallied up 1.5% in the morning. Banks did lead the run with MQG up approximately 1.5% for the morning session, along with oil stocks. Spoecial mention goes to NIDO Petroleum (NDO.ax) that went up 16.16%.
However, swine flu effect took the market lower as market fears loom over the effect of swine flu taking recession deeper amongst the globe. Extended morning session saw Asia Pacific in general tanked, taking the market to the lows of the day. Swine flu and China slamming breaks on loan growth may have took HK financials to the low of the day, with China Insurance down 5.51%, while ICBC down 5.85% despite earnings forecast beaten estimates. Metals also went lower with industrial metals going red into the day.
Japan and Aussie took a late rally from financials, taking both market ending pretty much flat. As per Dive2Blue discussed, pharmaceuticals took the leading start for the week, while defensives also played out strong on the market, while HK went 2.74% down into the reds.
As we have always discussed, the precious metal play has been paying off the last week, and has reached our exit point. This sums up our Lihir Gold play with a net pay of about 5%.
We continue to maintain a bearish overtone over the sentiment, and questions whether the situation now is signaling the resumation of the bear market. We will continue to blog on this aspect throughout the week, but again, as to reiterate, we believe this is a bearish overtone on the market!
Anyhows, thats it for the day! Happy trading!
ongy out.
As per discussed this morning, we did see technical sell off in HSI in the morning as it went down approximately 1%, while ASX rallied up 1.5% in the morning. Banks did lead the run with MQG up approximately 1.5% for the morning session, along with oil stocks. Spoecial mention goes to NIDO Petroleum (NDO.ax) that went up 16.16%.
However, swine flu effect took the market lower as market fears loom over the effect of swine flu taking recession deeper amongst the globe. Extended morning session saw Asia Pacific in general tanked, taking the market to the lows of the day. Swine flu and China slamming breaks on loan growth may have took HK financials to the low of the day, with China Insurance down 5.51%, while ICBC down 5.85% despite earnings forecast beaten estimates. Metals also went lower with industrial metals going red into the day.
Japan and Aussie took a late rally from financials, taking both market ending pretty much flat. As per Dive2Blue discussed, pharmaceuticals took the leading start for the week, while defensives also played out strong on the market, while HK went 2.74% down into the reds.
As we have always discussed, the precious metal play has been paying off the last week, and has reached our exit point. This sums up our Lihir Gold play with a net pay of about 5%.
We continue to maintain a bearish overtone over the sentiment, and questions whether the situation now is signaling the resumation of the bear market. We will continue to blog on this aspect throughout the week, but again, as to reiterate, we believe this is a bearish overtone on the market!
Anyhows, thats it for the day! Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Sorry a bit of a momentum trade here, for the record of monitoring
I call a buy on
BA @ 152... I believe it has been oversold today due to overreaction from swine flu.
I call a buy on
BA @ 152... I believe it has been oversold today due to overreaction from swine flu.
0 comments
FTSE 270409 MORNING BRIEF
Hello everyone,
Following on from Asia, it seems that the bullish sentiment that persevered over the weekend could be coming to an abrupt end as pessimism trading resumes.
European Futures pointed downwards as a result of the swine flu scare, today we expect a red day in the FTSE. Where financials may lead the way downwards following Asia.
I reemphasize my stand on the strong standing of Pharmaceuticals, which I believe were oversold upon results announcement, and has now been reemphasized by the swine flu out break.
Oil seems to have fallen back down upon reports of high inventories, I believe this may prompt a buy call for oil stocks somewhere within the week... but for now I would hold off that judgement
For calls today:-
Sell GSK (I expect profit taking tomorrow on this stock), I believe this position should be closed after midday at best price.
Buy on MKS @330 (subject to revision)
Buy NG @ 547 (move to defensives)
Following on from Asia, it seems that the bullish sentiment that persevered over the weekend could be coming to an abrupt end as pessimism trading resumes.
European Futures pointed downwards as a result of the swine flu scare, today we expect a red day in the FTSE. Where financials may lead the way downwards following Asia.
I reemphasize my stand on the strong standing of Pharmaceuticals, which I believe were oversold upon results announcement, and has now been reemphasized by the swine flu out break.
Oil seems to have fallen back down upon reports of high inventories, I believe this may prompt a buy call for oil stocks somewhere within the week... but for now I would hold off that judgement
For calls today:-
Sell GSK (I expect profit taking tomorrow on this stock), I believe this position should be closed after midday at best price.
Buy on MKS @330 (subject to revision)
Buy NG @ 547 (move to defensives)
1 comments
Asia 270409 Morning Brief
Morning!
To make it brief today, taking leads from the sense of optimism from good data and a positive notes on stress test result, we expect to start off the week, Asia will in general take this cue and have a green start.
Dive2Blue has recommended pharmaceutical to be a top pick for the start of this week, while I personally believe oil stocks, names like Santos (STO.AX), Oil Search (OSH.AX), CNOOC (883.HK) will be decent watch for the start of this week, given that oil has reentered above the $50/bbl mark.
Optimism may come from U.S. bank sector, and we may see a continual run over the banking sectors in Asia Pacific. Diversified financials shall be the names we are looking into. We want to pick names such as Macquarie Group (MQG.AX) and ICBC (1398.HK), but avoid consumer credit-focused names as we expect the consumer credit sector continues to deteriorate.
Consumer discretionary and staples is also anticipated to go up today, but on a slower leg as compared to the market.
Despite the sense of optimism in the market, we maintain to have a bearish overtone over the market. We continue to favour the precious metal trade, and continue to recommend on a buy on Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) and SPDR Gold (2824.HK) with the greenbacks continue to fall, while bearish over industrial metals.
Provided we had Asia had a mixed day on Friday, we may anticipate some technical sell off in HSI, but we expect ASX200 to rally today. We anticipate 1.5- 2% movements for ASX200, while we see HSI to end 0.5% - 1% up.
Thats about it for this morning! Happy trading!
ongy out.
To make it brief today, taking leads from the sense of optimism from good data and a positive notes on stress test result, we expect to start off the week, Asia will in general take this cue and have a green start.
Dive2Blue has recommended pharmaceutical to be a top pick for the start of this week, while I personally believe oil stocks, names like Santos (STO.AX), Oil Search (OSH.AX), CNOOC (883.HK) will be decent watch for the start of this week, given that oil has reentered above the $50/bbl mark.
Optimism may come from U.S. bank sector, and we may see a continual run over the banking sectors in Asia Pacific. Diversified financials shall be the names we are looking into. We want to pick names such as Macquarie Group (MQG.AX) and ICBC (1398.HK), but avoid consumer credit-focused names as we expect the consumer credit sector continues to deteriorate.
Consumer discretionary and staples is also anticipated to go up today, but on a slower leg as compared to the market.
Despite the sense of optimism in the market, we maintain to have a bearish overtone over the market. We continue to favour the precious metal trade, and continue to recommend on a buy on Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) and SPDR Gold (2824.HK) with the greenbacks continue to fall, while bearish over industrial metals.
Provided we had Asia had a mixed day on Friday, we may anticipate some technical sell off in HSI, but we expect ASX200 to rally today. We anticipate 1.5- 2% movements for ASX200, while we see HSI to end 0.5% - 1% up.
Thats about it for this morning! Happy trading!
ongy out.
1 comments
Friday, 24 April 2009
US Morning wrap 240409
Friday, 24 April 2009
Morning!
Since I'm on the run today, I will give some brief comments over my view for the market today.
Leads from Asia was mixed, although it was general down for Japan, Korea and Australia.
However, leads from crudes remains to point some support for the oil stocks, while our continual emphasis on precious metals play is paying off.
As for the market today, I personally anticipate a big move with the financials. My opinion goes on the downside given that UK may lose its AAA rating, with the economy contracting 1.9%. While releases from Bloomberg points to banks may struggle to raise money after stress test as bad asset triples, which continues to confirm our opinion over bad debt issues from consumer credits.
Despite the current optimism in FTSE, as we speak now, futures are also pointing down, indicating a lower start. I believe the market today will go red roughly 2%, with regional banks and consumer crediting lending businesses dragging the market down.
GM and Chrysler may continue its decline over bankruptcy concern, and consumer staples may have a technical rebound after an unanticipated selloff from my behalf. I continue to favour this defensive play amid the cautious trading over the current market rally.
I must note, however, if the results from stress test provides positive tone, the market will continue this current rally, and it may be an option to enter into sold down financials over the last few sessions.
As of today, I continue to recommend the following trade:
1. Sell Citigroup (C)
2. Buy Spdr Gold
3. Sell S&P500 financials
4.Buy S&P 500 Healthcare
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Since I'm on the run today, I will give some brief comments over my view for the market today.
Leads from Asia was mixed, although it was general down for Japan, Korea and Australia.
However, leads from crudes remains to point some support for the oil stocks, while our continual emphasis on precious metals play is paying off.
As for the market today, I personally anticipate a big move with the financials. My opinion goes on the downside given that UK may lose its AAA rating, with the economy contracting 1.9%. While releases from Bloomberg points to banks may struggle to raise money after stress test as bad asset triples, which continues to confirm our opinion over bad debt issues from consumer credits.
Despite the current optimism in FTSE, as we speak now, futures are also pointing down, indicating a lower start. I believe the market today will go red roughly 2%, with regional banks and consumer crediting lending businesses dragging the market down.
GM and Chrysler may continue its decline over bankruptcy concern, and consumer staples may have a technical rebound after an unanticipated selloff from my behalf. I continue to favour this defensive play amid the cautious trading over the current market rally.
I must note, however, if the results from stress test provides positive tone, the market will continue this current rally, and it may be an option to enter into sold down financials over the last few sessions.
As of today, I continue to recommend the following trade:
1. Sell Citigroup (C)
2. Buy Spdr Gold
3. Sell S&P500 financials
4.Buy S&P 500 Healthcare
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Asia 240409 Morning Wrap
Morning!
Making this a quick wrap today. Overnight saw optimism fueling into the market again over Mariott, Ebay and Cnoocphillips. This translated to an increase in risk appetite over the currency market, as we see AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP all going back up towards their uptrend movement.
A quick note should also be taken from US financials that went up by more than 3% from positive earnings. Asia may take cues to start off financials on a positive note amid continual deterioriation in consumer credit in banks that may induce further write offs.
Bullish sentiment overnight from commodity may also see some support for the oil stocks, however, we remain neutral over materials as industrial metals continue to stay weak.
Consumer stocks may continue its run from the bullish idea over consumption recovery. We may expect Autos to continue its runs while we see lodging stocks to follow US cues for a green day.
Although we continue to favour the precious metal play, we may see some setback today due to the overall bullish tone on the market last night.
Having said our expectations for individual sectors, however, I personally continue to believe the markets should be relatively flat as investors remains cautious over the upcoming data.
As for our trade recommendation we believe:
1. Toyota (2703.T) remains a buy.
2. Oil Search (OSH.AX) may be a buy.
3. Geely Auto (175.HK) is a buy.
4. Regal Hotels Intl Holdings (78.HK) is a buy.
Good luck to all and happy trading for today!
ongy out.
Making this a quick wrap today. Overnight saw optimism fueling into the market again over Mariott, Ebay and Cnoocphillips. This translated to an increase in risk appetite over the currency market, as we see AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP all going back up towards their uptrend movement.
A quick note should also be taken from US financials that went up by more than 3% from positive earnings. Asia may take cues to start off financials on a positive note amid continual deterioriation in consumer credit in banks that may induce further write offs.
Bullish sentiment overnight from commodity may also see some support for the oil stocks, however, we remain neutral over materials as industrial metals continue to stay weak.
Consumer stocks may continue its run from the bullish idea over consumption recovery. We may expect Autos to continue its runs while we see lodging stocks to follow US cues for a green day.
Although we continue to favour the precious metal play, we may see some setback today due to the overall bullish tone on the market last night.
Having said our expectations for individual sectors, however, I personally continue to believe the markets should be relatively flat as investors remains cautious over the upcoming data.
As for our trade recommendation we believe:
1. Toyota (2703.T) remains a buy.
2. Oil Search (OSH.AX) may be a buy.
3. Geely Auto (175.HK) is a buy.
4. Regal Hotels Intl Holdings (78.HK) is a buy.
Good luck to all and happy trading for today!
ongy out.
0 comments
US Afternoon Wrap 230409
Afternoon all,
I'll make this a quick wrap up. DJ and S&P headed down south early in the morning, but recovered from the trough strongly in the afternoon session as the market shrugged off poor home sales data and rising jobless claims, taking both indices up 0.89% and 0.99% respectively.
A snapshot of the sectors' performance are as follow:
Consumer Discretionary: +0.08%
Consumer Staples: -0.18%
Energy: +1.82%
Financials +4.50%
Industrial: +1.40%
IT: +0.44%
Materials: -0.28%
Tellecomm: -0.34%
Utilities: +0.35%
Given dismal expectations over earnings, to be honest, any earnings that hits the mark will certainly fuel some sense of optimism. Hence, late earnings news from Mariott, Microsoft and Ebay beats consensus estimates, and fuels optimism over the market, again, over the issue of bottoming out and recovery. Cnoocphillips also took the energy sector up with their earnings.
Autos went up in general by 4%, fueled by optimism in the market. However, GM went down 4% as expected.
Financials pulled market up in general for the entire session, thanks largely by diversified banks, may be a trade over the optimism for the stress test result tomorrow, which in our opinion, continues to be a bear over the aforementioned reasons in previous post.
Looking ahead, in our opinion, we remain cautious over the next session despite the continual optimism over the current market rally. We remain to believe this is a BEAR MARKET RALLY and the market is runing ahead of itself as data continual to pointing to a deterioriating economy. We remain to favour the precious metal and defensive plays.
A comment over our recommendation:
Short on Citigroup (C) proved well: +1.54%
Sell on Spdr Financials did not pay off: - 3.06%
Buy on Spdr Gold: +1.63%
Buy on Walmart: -0.20%
That's about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
I'll make this a quick wrap up. DJ and S&P headed down south early in the morning, but recovered from the trough strongly in the afternoon session as the market shrugged off poor home sales data and rising jobless claims, taking both indices up 0.89% and 0.99% respectively.
A snapshot of the sectors' performance are as follow:
Consumer Discretionary: +0.08%
Consumer Staples: -0.18%
Energy: +1.82%
Financials +4.50%
Industrial: +1.40%
IT: +0.44%
Materials: -0.28%
Tellecomm: -0.34%
Utilities: +0.35%
Given dismal expectations over earnings, to be honest, any earnings that hits the mark will certainly fuel some sense of optimism. Hence, late earnings news from Mariott, Microsoft and Ebay beats consensus estimates, and fuels optimism over the market, again, over the issue of bottoming out and recovery. Cnoocphillips also took the energy sector up with their earnings.
Autos went up in general by 4%, fueled by optimism in the market. However, GM went down 4% as expected.
Financials pulled market up in general for the entire session, thanks largely by diversified banks, may be a trade over the optimism for the stress test result tomorrow, which in our opinion, continues to be a bear over the aforementioned reasons in previous post.
Looking ahead, in our opinion, we remain cautious over the next session despite the continual optimism over the current market rally. We remain to believe this is a BEAR MARKET RALLY and the market is runing ahead of itself as data continual to pointing to a deterioriating economy. We remain to favour the precious metal and defensive plays.
A comment over our recommendation:
Short on Citigroup (C) proved well: +1.54%
Sell on Spdr Financials did not pay off: - 3.06%
Buy on Spdr Gold: +1.63%
Buy on Walmart: -0.20%
That's about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
FTSE CLOSE WRAPUP 240309
Well it looks like the FTSE ended relatively flat at -0.31 pts dragged down in the last few hours by financials as HSBA lost 2.46% and BARC -0.34%
Semi nationalized banks like Llyod fell by 4.48% and RBS by 0.94% by the end of the trading day.
Retailers staged huge gains on the FTSE to keep the index flat with Tesco gaining 1.62% Debehams was the pack leader with a large 21.65% gain while M&S leveled a bit to record a 3.26% gain.
On stock picks RDSA gained 0.95% and BP 1.33% coming up from a red morning on oil price optimism... Commodities also had a stellar day with Rio Tinto pushing up following the close of the Australian Market.
Again an over night position on GSK which closed down 3.19%, we expect a modest recovery by tomorrow.
Dive2Blue out.
Semi nationalized banks like Llyod fell by 4.48% and RBS by 0.94% by the end of the trading day.
Retailers staged huge gains on the FTSE to keep the index flat with Tesco gaining 1.62% Debehams was the pack leader with a large 21.65% gain while M&S leveled a bit to record a 3.26% gain.
On stock picks RDSA gained 0.95% and BP 1.33% coming up from a red morning on oil price optimism... Commodities also had a stellar day with Rio Tinto pushing up following the close of the Australian Market.
Again an over night position on GSK which closed down 3.19%, we expect a modest recovery by tomorrow.
Dive2Blue out.
2 comments
Thursday, 23 April 2009
US Morning Wrap 230409
Thursday, 23 April 2009
Morning all,
Having Apple and Ebay recording 1Q profits that beats the analyst estimates, and taking cues from the currency market with the Euro gaining against the dollar, we see the market is currently fuelling some sense of optimism to another day, speculating the pick up in the consumption market signals a bottoming of the recession. This sees the futures for both DJIA and S&P500 pointing up to confirm such view. Based on this, we believe US may open higher, however we will see such optimism fading away given the increasing initial jobless claims rising to 640,000 last week, pointing, again, towards a weak economy.
We may see the financials to open up taking cues from Barclay's and Credit Suisse's result, however, given the continual market jitters over consumption credit worsening and banks may be required to disclose capital needs after stress-test results, we believe financials shall head down south during the session.
The auto industry will also take a hit after GM is requested by treasury to continual writedown, while a loss into the market share to the foreign competitors will take the autos into the reds. This may also spook the optimism in the commodities throughout the day, and take the crude and industrial metals into the reds.
On our ends, we recommend trade today as follows, with a theme to favour the defensives and precious metal plays:
1. Continual sell on Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan (JPM) given the bank's exposure in the credit card business.
2. Dive2Blue suggests a buy on GSK as he believe Pharmaceutical has been overly sold off.
3. Buy Spdr Gold
4. Buy into Walmart (WMT) for the defensive play.
5. Buy Spdr Consumer Staples Fund
6. Sell Spdr Financial Fund
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Having Apple and Ebay recording 1Q profits that beats the analyst estimates, and taking cues from the currency market with the Euro gaining against the dollar, we see the market is currently fuelling some sense of optimism to another day, speculating the pick up in the consumption market signals a bottoming of the recession. This sees the futures for both DJIA and S&P500 pointing up to confirm such view. Based on this, we believe US may open higher, however we will see such optimism fading away given the increasing initial jobless claims rising to 640,000 last week, pointing, again, towards a weak economy.
We may see the financials to open up taking cues from Barclay's and Credit Suisse's result, however, given the continual market jitters over consumption credit worsening and banks may be required to disclose capital needs after stress-test results, we believe financials shall head down south during the session.
The auto industry will also take a hit after GM is requested by treasury to continual writedown, while a loss into the market share to the foreign competitors will take the autos into the reds. This may also spook the optimism in the commodities throughout the day, and take the crude and industrial metals into the reds.
On our ends, we recommend trade today as follows, with a theme to favour the defensives and precious metal plays:
1. Continual sell on Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan (JPM) given the bank's exposure in the credit card business.
2. Dive2Blue suggests a buy on GSK as he believe Pharmaceutical has been overly sold off.
3. Buy Spdr Gold
4. Buy into Walmart (WMT) for the defensive play.
5. Buy Spdr Consumer Staples Fund
6. Sell Spdr Financial Fund
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
FTSE market opening 230409
Afternoon everyone,
I'll make this a quick comment on the morning LSE today...
Looks like financials flattish driven up by Credit Suisse's positive earnings, and down by the indications of a increased bank bailout fund by the British government. I see banks like RBS and Llyods most affected by the down side than HSBC and Barclays.
Resource plays are expected to have a positive overtone to them following Australia's resource gain pushed by Rio Tinto on speculation of another BHP takeover, I do expect some tapering off of the price as the day draws to an end however; with Rio currently up 1 1/19ths of a percent (1.38% basically). Of course this will follow after a decent rise towards midday.
For calls on UK stocks today~ look for oil stocks:
-BP
-RDSA
and maybe TESCO (M&S is up 5% at this reporting time, lol)
For next day gains avoid financials, stress test result announcements should promote caution especially given indicators. However, prepare to look at:-
-GSK, based on expected recovery after all the bad news that has hit it~ I've decided pharmaceuticals has been oversold.
-In addition I believe BP and Royal Dutch Shell are potential overnight plays, given the bullish commodity sentiment which I expect to carry over till tomorrow at least.
Oh I almost forgot.... I expect a flattish FTSE today despite red financials maybe down 0.5% given investors are being cautious.
I'll make this a quick comment on the morning LSE today...
Looks like financials flattish driven up by Credit Suisse's positive earnings, and down by the indications of a increased bank bailout fund by the British government. I see banks like RBS and Llyods most affected by the down side than HSBC and Barclays.
Resource plays are expected to have a positive overtone to them following Australia's resource gain pushed by Rio Tinto on speculation of another BHP takeover, I do expect some tapering off of the price as the day draws to an end however; with Rio currently up 1 1/19ths of a percent (1.38% basically). Of course this will follow after a decent rise towards midday.
For calls on UK stocks today~ look for oil stocks:
-BP
-RDSA
and maybe TESCO (M&S is up 5% at this reporting time, lol)
For next day gains avoid financials, stress test result announcements should promote caution especially given indicators. However, prepare to look at:-
-GSK, based on expected recovery after all the bad news that has hit it~ I've decided pharmaceuticals has been oversold.
-In addition I believe BP and Royal Dutch Shell are potential overnight plays, given the bullish commodity sentiment which I expect to carry over till tomorrow at least.
Oh I almost forgot.... I expect a flattish FTSE today despite red financials maybe down 0.5% given investors are being cautious.
0 comments
Asia 230409 Afternoon Wrap
Japan followed cue from US, with financials dragging Nikkei down in the morning trades. Amid the cautious trades, carmakers generally went up with Toyota leading the pack after Goldman gave a buy rating. Afternoon session saw Nikkei pushed further up the green territories from the reds, ending up 1.37% from speculations over brewery takeover.
However, ASX200 and HSI deviated from this cue, with financials starting mix with banks up over the board and insurance like AXA Asia down 3.48%. MQG,up 6.90%, was the winner for the day which pulled the ASX200 to finish up 2.04%. Financials in HK also ended across up 1%, amid cautious trading. The lead from carmakers also lifted resources with FMG up 1.95% and Angang up 1.60%. Revived talk between BHP and RIO also saw both companies up 3.14% and 6.06% respectively in AU market. Oil stocks ended flat or down south, taking cues from the crude going down south, while defensive names continued to be favoured, up consumer discretionary up 3.44%, while utilities up 1.44%, however, telecomms was only up 0.52% for the Aussie market. For HK, brewery and ultilies ended slightly up, while telecomms had a hard rally up 1.5%.
A special note goes to CRC and CSR that went up 3.94% and 7.84% respectively, possibility due JPM's comment that Chinese gov't would not withdraw stimulus money from the system, leading infrastructures up in China.
We note that we are disappointed with the market's price action today. We may consider today as a technical rebound from the last two lower sessions, amid investors are becoming cautious from low volume. Taking cue from precious metals, we also see continual cautious investors waiting to see what will happen overnight, despite optimism has pulled risky currencies further up towards their resistance line again.
We may possibly see more profit taking actions for tomorrow, while the defensive name + precious metal play is still being favoured. We will wait and see the lead from the overnight market tonight.
A summary for our trade recommendation today:
Woolsworth (WOW.AX): + 2.88%
Telstra (TLS.AX): +0.31%
Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) : +1.76%
Toyota Motors (7203.T): +3.46%
Sony (6758.T): + 1.81%
Kirin (2503.T): +3.90%
Happy trading!
ongy out.
However, ASX200 and HSI deviated from this cue, with financials starting mix with banks up over the board and insurance like AXA Asia down 3.48%. MQG,up 6.90%, was the winner for the day which pulled the ASX200 to finish up 2.04%. Financials in HK also ended across up 1%, amid cautious trading. The lead from carmakers also lifted resources with FMG up 1.95% and Angang up 1.60%. Revived talk between BHP and RIO also saw both companies up 3.14% and 6.06% respectively in AU market. Oil stocks ended flat or down south, taking cues from the crude going down south, while defensive names continued to be favoured, up consumer discretionary up 3.44%, while utilities up 1.44%, however, telecomms was only up 0.52% for the Aussie market. For HK, brewery and ultilies ended slightly up, while telecomms had a hard rally up 1.5%.
A special note goes to CRC and CSR that went up 3.94% and 7.84% respectively, possibility due JPM's comment that Chinese gov't would not withdraw stimulus money from the system, leading infrastructures up in China.
We note that we are disappointed with the market's price action today. We may consider today as a technical rebound from the last two lower sessions, amid investors are becoming cautious from low volume. Taking cue from precious metals, we also see continual cautious investors waiting to see what will happen overnight, despite optimism has pulled risky currencies further up towards their resistance line again.
We may possibly see more profit taking actions for tomorrow, while the defensive name + precious metal play is still being favoured. We will wait and see the lead from the overnight market tonight.
A summary for our trade recommendation today:
Woolsworth (WOW.AX): + 2.88%
Telstra (TLS.AX): +0.31%
Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) : +1.76%
Toyota Motors (7203.T): +3.46%
Sony (6758.T): + 1.81%
Kirin (2503.T): +3.90%
Happy trading!
ongy out.
1 comments
Hang Seng & Nikkei 230409 Morning Brief
Morning all,
It looks like the market settled from the housing price rally when I woke up this morning. I was relatively pleased and relieved at that.
Looking at the day ahead, we expect Hong Kong Financial stocks to drop following the bearish US financial sentiment (and Europe had better follow later today)...
On the Nikkei; financials should be dropping as well; however, we do see a potential flat day for the Nikkei as electronic stocks and potentially auto stocks rally on positive US housing data (Auto stocks suffered drops in previous day trading due to expected lossses). My understanding of the Japanese consumer market is a bit lacking, so Kirin's proposed acquisition of Lion Nathan (where no price has been set yet) may drag the stock up given that an overseas acquisition will be seen in positive light given the shrinking Japanese consumer market, though this offer has been expected for quite sometime now. With regards to tech stocks, despite AMD's dismal performance in the US... I predict Japanese tech stocks to also rally given the bullish US fhousing data. This is my morning call for Japan:
Buy Sony (6758)
Buy Toyota (7203)
Buy Kirin (2503)
In Hong Kong we expect a 1% red day due to financials with a shift as ongy has interated in his ASX opener towards defensive stocks and precious metal related stocks.
It looks like the market settled from the housing price rally when I woke up this morning. I was relatively pleased and relieved at that.
Looking at the day ahead, we expect Hong Kong Financial stocks to drop following the bearish US financial sentiment (and Europe had better follow later today)...
On the Nikkei; financials should be dropping as well; however, we do see a potential flat day for the Nikkei as electronic stocks and potentially auto stocks rally on positive US housing data (Auto stocks suffered drops in previous day trading due to expected lossses). My understanding of the Japanese consumer market is a bit lacking, so Kirin's proposed acquisition of Lion Nathan (where no price has been set yet) may drag the stock up given that an overseas acquisition will be seen in positive light given the shrinking Japanese consumer market, though this offer has been expected for quite sometime now. With regards to tech stocks, despite AMD's dismal performance in the US... I predict Japanese tech stocks to also rally given the bullish US fhousing data. This is my morning call for Japan:
Buy Sony (6758)
Buy Toyota (7203)
Buy Kirin (2503)
In Hong Kong we expect a 1% red day due to financials with a shift as ongy has interated in his ASX opener towards defensive stocks and precious metal related stocks.
0 comments
ASX 230409 Morning Wrap
Given the renewed worries on Banks from Morgan Stanley that snuffed out an early rally of 1%, to end down -1.04%, we expect Asia to follow this cue to start off the day on a more bearish tone.
For the ASX200, we would anticipate a continual financial sector profit taking to unwind profits from the rally from March 9. Taking cues from the CRB, crude and industrial metal prices overnight, we may also anticipate the materials sector to pare some of the gains made yesterday, if not going further down south.
We will be seeing the precious metal names to be the rallying hard today after a rotation into precious metals overnight, with silver up 2.03% and gold up 1.09% upon renewed worries for the delicate economy. (This stock market - precious metal correlation shall be discussed later on in the week.)
Again, given the bearish tone we have set in place, we believe the ASX will have a red day, possibly going down south between 1.5%-2%. However, we continue to favour the defensives.
Recommended trade on the Aussie market today:
Buy LGL
Buy WOW
BUY TLS
Lastly, good luck to all with the market today!
ongy out.
For the ASX200, we would anticipate a continual financial sector profit taking to unwind profits from the rally from March 9. Taking cues from the CRB, crude and industrial metal prices overnight, we may also anticipate the materials sector to pare some of the gains made yesterday, if not going further down south.
We will be seeing the precious metal names to be the rallying hard today after a rotation into precious metals overnight, with silver up 2.03% and gold up 1.09% upon renewed worries for the delicate economy. (This stock market - precious metal correlation shall be discussed later on in the week.)
Again, given the bearish tone we have set in place, we believe the ASX will have a red day, possibly going down south between 1.5%-2%. However, we continue to favour the defensives.
Recommended trade on the Aussie market today:
Buy LGL
Buy WOW
BUY TLS
Lastly, good luck to all with the market today!
ongy out.
0 comments
US Afternoon Wrap 220409
Some optimisic earnings report and a suprising housing price index, beating the consensus estimate by 1.4%, spooked an early rally on the market.
However, DJs and S&P ended the day in reds, paring gains from early sessions with financials snuffing out the rally, with Morgan Stanley renewing bank worries and GM saying their likelihood to miss debt payment deadline.
As per our discussion in the morning, we saw investors are becoming cautious and seeks to profit take - signs of turning towards a risk averse theme ahead of important economic events and the stress test.
However, suprises with Ebay and Apple's earnings lifted the tech sector to close to flat for NADAQ.
A summary of the market:
Dows Jones Industrials: - 1.04%
S&P 500: - 0.77%
NASDAQ: +0.14%
S&P 500 Energy: -1.40%
S&P 500 Financials: -3.82%
s&P 500 Consumer Staples: -1.37%
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary: 0.87%
S&P 500 Industrials: +1.14%
S&P 500 IT: +0.21%
s&P 500 Telecom: +0.71%
S&P500 Utilities: -1.23%
Looking ahead from today, we should expect further profit taking from the market. We see further shorts on Citigroup for after hours. Further comments shall be made for morning wrap.
ongy out.
However, DJs and S&P ended the day in reds, paring gains from early sessions with financials snuffing out the rally, with Morgan Stanley renewing bank worries and GM saying their likelihood to miss debt payment deadline.
As per our discussion in the morning, we saw investors are becoming cautious and seeks to profit take - signs of turning towards a risk averse theme ahead of important economic events and the stress test.
However, suprises with Ebay and Apple's earnings lifted the tech sector to close to flat for NADAQ.
A summary of the market:
Dows Jones Industrials: - 1.04%
S&P 500: - 0.77%
NASDAQ: +0.14%
S&P 500 Energy: -1.40%
S&P 500 Financials: -3.82%
s&P 500 Consumer Staples: -1.37%
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary: 0.87%
S&P 500 Industrials: +1.14%
S&P 500 IT: +0.21%
s&P 500 Telecom: +0.71%
S&P500 Utilities: -1.23%
Looking ahead from today, we should expect further profit taking from the market. We see further shorts on Citigroup for after hours. Further comments shall be made for morning wrap.
ongy out.
0 comments
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
UK Market close and US Midday
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
Well what can we say? We can't get everything right, did not expect such positive housing data to come out at such a key moment.
UK financials were on their way downwards with the entire market almost down by half a percent before the vital news broke out that sparked a quick rally. Closing up at 0.93% while financials reclaimed their gains earlier in the day.
The US market also opened on bearish sentiment with most major financials down at the start. With a flurry of optimistic earnings reports following Morgan Stanley's slightly negative one driven by AT&T, Ford and GE pushing the whole market up.
There are also rumours of Freddie Mac's Acting CFO's suicide, this may prove another turning point if there is a significant case for it, but we shall leave that for now.
UK financials were on their way downwards with the entire market almost down by half a percent before the vital news broke out that sparked a quick rally. Closing up at 0.93% while financials reclaimed their gains earlier in the day.
The US market also opened on bearish sentiment with most major financials down at the start. With a flurry of optimistic earnings reports following Morgan Stanley's slightly negative one driven by AT&T, Ford and GE pushing the whole market up.
There are also rumours of Freddie Mac's Acting CFO's suicide, this may prove another turning point if there is a significant case for it, but we shall leave that for now.
0 comments
220409 US Morning Wrap
Looking at the pre-market session, we see futures are pointing downwards for DJ's and S&P. We should expect a lower start today for the market. Taking cues from the currency market, we see the market sentiment is obviously taking the risk averse theme, with the risky currencies all falling from their highs from yesterday. We also see the yen and dollar strengthening to confirm this view.
Despite Geither's comment yesterday over banks have adequate capital, comments over increasing bad debts over credit card loans and other consumer loans from banks and having the stress test result on Friday, we should see the financials to be weighing the market today.
Moreoever, Nestle 1Q take forex hit, CPU maker AMD posts loss with CEO doubting PC market has bottomed, while Yahoo continued to cut staff. This confirms the delicate status on the economy, and provides an opinion that the previous gains on the market will be short lived.
Looking at the resources/ materials, looking at cues from the industrial metals and crude, I also believe the energy sector will end up in the reds.
Looking ahead for today, we shall also anticipate the housing price index due to be released will also weigh on the market.
Personally I believe the financials shall be a seller, while the tech's will also be weighing on the market. We shall see a DJ and S&P to lower between 1.5-2.5%.
The trade recommendation today looks for shorting citigroup (C) and long into defensive names.
ongy out.
Despite Geither's comment yesterday over banks have adequate capital, comments over increasing bad debts over credit card loans and other consumer loans from banks and having the stress test result on Friday, we should see the financials to be weighing the market today.
Moreoever, Nestle 1Q take forex hit, CPU maker AMD posts loss with CEO doubting PC market has bottomed, while Yahoo continued to cut staff. This confirms the delicate status on the economy, and provides an opinion that the previous gains on the market will be short lived.
Looking at the resources/ materials, looking at cues from the industrial metals and crude, I also believe the energy sector will end up in the reds.
Looking ahead for today, we shall also anticipate the housing price index due to be released will also weigh on the market.
Personally I believe the financials shall be a seller, while the tech's will also be weighing on the market. We shall see a DJ and S&P to lower between 1.5-2.5%.
The trade recommendation today looks for shorting citigroup (C) and long into defensive names.
ongy out.
1 comments
UK Market Report 10AM
The FTSE is currently green though barely; however just to update, financials are still performing strongly with:
Barclays +7.54%
HSBC +1.67%
RBS +1.30%
LLOY +4.95%
It seems like the optimism in the London market from Geithner is still present, with Barclays up 7.54% due to its drop yesterday to match up with the over 2% again on its ADR traded shares in the US.
I am currently standing by my bearish view that financial stocks will taper off later today, and feel that this optimism is being overplayed.
The FTSE is still trading near low levels, and the possibility of a red day is still present, though perhaps the performance of the US market may present a trigger, will follow up on that soon.
The British budget report is to be delivered today; however, the released minutes have indicated encouraging initial effects for the asset purchasing program... I'm not sure what effect this will have as of yet.
---------------------------------
Additional comment:
Seems like British unemployment rate has risen along with a record budget deficit (unemployment seems to have risen by an amount lower than expected)... I wonder how the British economy is going to recover from this one... >.<
Barclays +7.54%
HSBC +1.67%
RBS +1.30%
LLOY +4.95%
It seems like the optimism in the London market from Geithner is still present, with Barclays up 7.54% due to its drop yesterday to match up with the over 2% again on its ADR traded shares in the US.
I am currently standing by my bearish view that financial stocks will taper off later today, and feel that this optimism is being overplayed.
The FTSE is still trading near low levels, and the possibility of a red day is still present, though perhaps the performance of the US market may present a trigger, will follow up on that soon.
The British budget report is to be delivered today; however, the released minutes have indicated encouraging initial effects for the asset purchasing program... I'm not sure what effect this will have as of yet.
---------------------------------
Additional comment:
Seems like British unemployment rate has risen along with a record budget deficit (unemployment seems to have risen by an amount lower than expected)... I wonder how the British economy is going to recover from this one... >.<
0 comments
Sorry about the rushed post wanted to get that out before I establish more views,
I expect the optimism on Geithner's comments to diminish given the Asian reaction to these comments, especially as investors remain cautious, Geithner's credibility has gone down in my books (like... really down) to the extent I view his recent comment as a PR play to shore up confidence.
Oil looks to be down as well, justifying a lower BP opening, my overall bear on the market is still present however, despite the current financial pull on the FTSE... The high recently released deficient should act as a sufficient catalyst to drive the market down for the morning, given the limitations it will place on potential stimulus plans and further bank bailouts. In a premature view, I see US financials dropping due to overextension on Geithner's comments (again Asian reaction to the comments).
Personally I question the plausibility of the stress test, given Geithner's random outbursts of information feeding when the market goes bad.
I expect the optimism on Geithner's comments to diminish given the Asian reaction to these comments, especially as investors remain cautious, Geithner's credibility has gone down in my books (like... really down) to the extent I view his recent comment as a PR play to shore up confidence.
Oil looks to be down as well, justifying a lower BP opening, my overall bear on the market is still present however, despite the current financial pull on the FTSE... The high recently released deficient should act as a sufficient catalyst to drive the market down for the morning, given the limitations it will place on potential stimulus plans and further bank bailouts. In a premature view, I see US financials dropping due to overextension on Geithner's comments (again Asian reaction to the comments).
Personally I question the plausibility of the stress test, given Geithner's random outbursts of information feeding when the market goes bad.
0 comments
Our approach
Hi all,
Following from Dive2Blue's last post, I'm here to give a heads up over our approach to this blog. As of today we would plan to kick start our Global Financial Analytics blog by giving everyone our views and opinion for each market' s morning wrap and a afternoon wrap. We will try to provide our opinion over the market and at times, be more specific over individual stocks as our recommendation.
Please do let us know how we may improve, we look forward to your posts! =)
Ongy out.
Following from Dive2Blue's last post, I'm here to give a heads up over our approach to this blog. As of today we would plan to kick start our Global Financial Analytics blog by giving everyone our views and opinion for each market' s morning wrap and a afternoon wrap. We will try to provide our opinion over the market and at times, be more specific over individual stocks as our recommendation.
Please do let us know how we may improve, we look forward to your posts! =)
Ongy out.
0 comments
LSE Opening comments 220409
Afternoon everyone,
Well looks like that optimism from Geithner comments didn't carry on till today...
Asia seems to be generally red, with financials flat.
Personally, I saw the UK and US markets both red yesterday due to financials (Prudential and Bank of NY Mellon man). Geithner has commented several times on the market everytime bad news comes out to drive it up... so why shouldn't I have been suprised>.<.
Okay rant aside, Asian financials were generally flat today, HSBC HK is currently down by about 2.3% today.
UK financials have opened up on a positive note despite the FTSE falling which comes as a personal suprise to me; however, I see a certain degree of leveling on financials by the end of the day (assuming some spill over from Geithner's comments is being reflected in morning figures), especially given the dim sentiment shown by Asian financials. Overall, it looks like a red day for the FTSE today, 1% range or greater is possible. Some light profit taking on Tesco after a nice green day post financial results is going on early this morning. A lot of things to cover in Asian closing wraps and UK mornings, hopefully we can refine this process, but this is the current outlook for now.
Well looks like that optimism from Geithner comments didn't carry on till today...
Asia seems to be generally red, with financials flat.
Personally, I saw the UK and US markets both red yesterday due to financials (Prudential and Bank of NY Mellon man). Geithner has commented several times on the market everytime bad news comes out to drive it up... so why shouldn't I have been suprised>.<.
Okay rant aside, Asian financials were generally flat today, HSBC HK is currently down by about 2.3% today.
UK financials have opened up on a positive note despite the FTSE falling which comes as a personal suprise to me; however, I see a certain degree of leveling on financials by the end of the day (assuming some spill over from Geithner's comments is being reflected in morning figures), especially given the dim sentiment shown by Asian financials. Overall, it looks like a red day for the FTSE today, 1% range or greater is possible. Some light profit taking on Tesco after a nice green day post financial results is going on early this morning. A lot of things to cover in Asian closing wraps and UK mornings, hopefully we can refine this process, but this is the current outlook for now.
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Hey
Hey,
This is just a heads up that we're starting this blog within the next week or so.
Will give a heads up on what we plan to publish here (this post will probably be deleted by next week).
Basically this blog is being set up to provide a way for us to express our views on the current global financial markets, starting with opening and closing wraps (and maybe some comments in between). Bear with us as we try to cover as many markets as possible. We plan to develop our focus eventually, starting out with general overviews of the markets and narrowing our comments to specific companies or industries when relevant. I would like to add as a closing comment before you believe everything we say (or not), these these are our opinions and ours only. We welcome any difference in opinions in our comments, and would enjoy a good debate or difference in opinion (not that we always agree). Anyway... wish us luck!! (or maybe more likely wish the financial markets good luck).
I'll add a post on our background (vaguely) a bit later so at least it makes us sound like we know what we're talking about.
Dive2Blue out.
This is just a heads up that we're starting this blog within the next week or so.
Will give a heads up on what we plan to publish here (this post will probably be deleted by next week).
Basically this blog is being set up to provide a way for us to express our views on the current global financial markets, starting with opening and closing wraps (and maybe some comments in between). Bear with us as we try to cover as many markets as possible. We plan to develop our focus eventually, starting out with general overviews of the markets and narrowing our comments to specific companies or industries when relevant. I would like to add as a closing comment before you believe everything we say (or not), these these are our opinions and ours only. We welcome any difference in opinions in our comments, and would enjoy a good debate or difference in opinion (not that we always agree). Anyway... wish us luck!! (or maybe more likely wish the financial markets good luck).
I'll add a post on our background (vaguely) a bit later so at least it makes us sound like we know what we're talking about.
Dive2Blue out.
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