Morning all,
Ongy's a bit tied up this morning, so I will be covering for him really quick...
Well, wow the US climbed over 2%, with Wells Fargo up 24%!!! I feel that Buffet's comments were highly speculative however, he may be a legacy but then again people do make mistakes... Well Well's may be a good bank, the upgrade of the sector buy GS draws questions however, especially after Buffet did lamblast the sector in general. The rest is understandable with a carry over of optimism from Asia, given the positive economic data. We do draw questions on if it is sustainable or is it just the effect of the stimulus on the economy... we present fears on the consumer credit bubble still rising despite attempts to curb it; I personally still see Oil @ 55 as a resistance pt.
For Asia, Japan remains closed today... I do also see some profit taking given all the optimism in the market, and yesterday's crazy rally. Depending on the carry over effect on the US I do expect Asia to be flattish today. Again I maintain my stand on the overplay of the inventory and manufacturing card, I do believe that we have a herding effect again. For specific sector calls, Financials should be flattish, I do see a retreat in cyclicals today... thus am positive on the defensive sector as investors seek to avoid the excess risk and volatility present in the market.
At this point I do not see strength in the Chinese power market however, given the risk of a commodity price rise (Specifically coal).
I believe the Geely auto card has been overplayed at this point as well thus I call a "sell on Geely"
Buy on HK & Gas
Buy on Tsingtao (Chinese beer man!!)
for HSBC I see an early green followed by a steady decline as well as investors shift their position following the stock being over played, with a midday sell call.
Provided no new data comes out these are our current calls...
ASX, I see Rio lower as news has settled in and I expect the commodities market to retreat in line with my bear stance and the overplay on data recently.
SELL RIO
BUY SPAUSNET
which I see as two strong defensive stocks today in the market
Also a HUGE SELL ON MQG.... yesterday's -10% loss to a 1% gain has spooked me on that regard.
I do believe however, a re-evaluation of my stance will be required if oil surpasses the 55 resistance line.
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
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