Morning all,
Apologies from both of us again, as unfortunately, I guess the flu is really taking its toll on everyone. We'll make a brief one for today.
As of now, it seems as though investor appetite has increased as we observe the currency market lead.
Despite worse than expected GDP output, in conjunction of further negative news floating from the stress test, seems like US stocks shrugged off bad news for a rise after three down days for a technical rebounce. Bank rallied given that Fox-Pitt analysts upgraded banks, while optimism brought the commodities back up, taking Exxon Mobile and ConocoPhillips up. This may be a continual optimism thru Asia's positive earnings outlook.
We expect today to be a 1-2% up day for all the markets.
We will not call for picks today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Asia 290409 Mid Day Wrap
Afternoon!
First of all, my apologies for missing out the closing wrap for last night and morning wrap for this morning in Asia.
Coming towards midday for ASX and near opening for HSI, I would like to give a few brief comments over the marke today.
Some sense of optimism came by last night with the US giving suprising upside data over consumer sentiment that lifted the market up most of the time over the session. Furthermore, S&P/ Cash Shillers index has also indicated slowdown in the housing freefall, after dropping 20% from the peak, which points towards a possible bottoming in the housing prices. However, bank fears once again came in as a theme towards the end of the session over BoA and Citigroup's fear for the need of further capital raising to weather through this credit crisis. Swine flu may have continued to taking leads to drag the market lower despite the unexpected data.
Taking cue this morning, I'd have believe that financials would have followed lead and fall on worries over further raising of capital. This implies there are increasing cloudiness over the stress test result, as per discussed by us in earlier post. As in our previous post, we continue to maintain this bearish view over the current situation, and believe more bad debts will arise as a result of consumer credit problems.
Swine flu effect may probably continuing weighing on the market, with commodities, consumer cyclicals (airlines especially) and retails to further hit lower. We continue to favour defensive stocks, and especially healthcare names.
Taking leads from overnight, I believe the market will follow similar pattern, with all ending roughly 1% lower today. However, we may expect HSI to have a technical rebounce after 3 consecutive down session, we may expect it to finish flat or slightly up, within 1%.
Last comment, names we favour include Geely Auto (175.hk), Tsingtao (168.hk) and CLP Holdings (3.hk).
Thats it today. Happy trading!
ongy out.
First of all, my apologies for missing out the closing wrap for last night and morning wrap for this morning in Asia.
Coming towards midday for ASX and near opening for HSI, I would like to give a few brief comments over the marke today.
Some sense of optimism came by last night with the US giving suprising upside data over consumer sentiment that lifted the market up most of the time over the session. Furthermore, S&P/ Cash Shillers index has also indicated slowdown in the housing freefall, after dropping 20% from the peak, which points towards a possible bottoming in the housing prices. However, bank fears once again came in as a theme towards the end of the session over BoA and Citigroup's fear for the need of further capital raising to weather through this credit crisis. Swine flu may have continued to taking leads to drag the market lower despite the unexpected data.
Taking cue this morning, I'd have believe that financials would have followed lead and fall on worries over further raising of capital. This implies there are increasing cloudiness over the stress test result, as per discussed by us in earlier post. As in our previous post, we continue to maintain this bearish view over the current situation, and believe more bad debts will arise as a result of consumer credit problems.
Swine flu effect may probably continuing weighing on the market, with commodities, consumer cyclicals (airlines especially) and retails to further hit lower. We continue to favour defensive stocks, and especially healthcare names.
Taking leads from overnight, I believe the market will follow similar pattern, with all ending roughly 1% lower today. However, we may expect HSI to have a technical rebounce after 3 consecutive down session, we may expect it to finish flat or slightly up, within 1%.
Last comment, names we favour include Geely Auto (175.hk), Tsingtao (168.hk) and CLP Holdings (3.hk).
Thats it today. Happy trading!
ongy out.
1 comments
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
US 280409 Morning Wrap
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Hello,
The pessimistic sentiment has persevered in Europe, with the market still down by about 2% at this post...
We expect the US market to open in the red with financials like BoA and CITI leading the way down due to the recent adverse news that has appeared on them. We expect oil and commodity stocks to continue being hit by the effects of Swine Flu, though i see some positive correction in those stocks; travelling has reduced and Swine Flu begins to have its effect on the global economy which will continue to hit transportation stocks
Pharmaceuticals can expect another green day as the outbreak continues to persevere.
As for trading calls today, if the US follows the lead from Europe we can expect another red day; however, I do call this an ideal opportunity in looking out for defensive stocks that go red, as we reemphasize our defensive plays.
I conceed that my plays in Europe yesterday were a but premature, however for the US market, Auto's may still stage a mild recovery on speculation of asset sales.
My calls for today would be:-
DAI buy
XOM buy
MT buy
The pessimistic sentiment has persevered in Europe, with the market still down by about 2% at this post...
We expect the US market to open in the red with financials like BoA and CITI leading the way down due to the recent adverse news that has appeared on them. We expect oil and commodity stocks to continue being hit by the effects of Swine Flu, though i see some positive correction in those stocks; travelling has reduced and Swine Flu begins to have its effect on the global economy which will continue to hit transportation stocks
Pharmaceuticals can expect another green day as the outbreak continues to persevere.
As for trading calls today, if the US follows the lead from Europe we can expect another red day; however, I do call this an ideal opportunity in looking out for defensive stocks that go red, as we reemphasize our defensive plays.
I conceed that my plays in Europe yesterday were a but premature, however for the US market, Auto's may still stage a mild recovery on speculation of asset sales.
My calls for today would be:-
DAI buy
XOM buy
MT buy
1 comments
FTSE CLOSING 270409 & 280409 OPENING
Hello all,
I would like to apologize for the late closing wrap, it's been quite a busy period for me this week.
Well Europe staged a last minute rally driven by pharmaceuticals and defensives yesterday, this was all following a rally in the US market driven by GM, pharmaceuticals and defensive plays.
Financials in the UK ended mixed with HSBC down -2% and stocks like RBS up 3%
We expect oil stocks to be pushed even lower in today's trading, as there continues to be a downside for oil, as for the travel industry further downside is expected (I would also like to add that my momentum play on BA may have come too early, given the worsening situation of the swine flu).
I also see some continued upside in Pharma as the WHO has categorized the Flu as a lvl 4 pandemic (the highest rating so far). However, that may taper off by the end of the day.
For our existing positions I would take a:-
BA sell (to limit losses due to further potential downside)
MKS hold (I see upside occuring for retailers in the 2-3 day time span)
NG hold (Defensive stocks will continue to be strong in times like these, I may call a sell later in the day as the market picks up)
On an additional note we expect financials to be red today, given that BoA and CITI have been implicated as banks needing additional capital which will dampen optimism in the market.
Overall, we see another red day for Europe as the Swine Flu pandemic continues to escalate from yesterday.
Dive2Blue out.
I would like to apologize for the late closing wrap, it's been quite a busy period for me this week.
Well Europe staged a last minute rally driven by pharmaceuticals and defensives yesterday, this was all following a rally in the US market driven by GM, pharmaceuticals and defensive plays.
Financials in the UK ended mixed with HSBC down -2% and stocks like RBS up 3%
We expect oil stocks to be pushed even lower in today's trading, as there continues to be a downside for oil, as for the travel industry further downside is expected (I would also like to add that my momentum play on BA may have come too early, given the worsening situation of the swine flu).
I also see some continued upside in Pharma as the WHO has categorized the Flu as a lvl 4 pandemic (the highest rating so far). However, that may taper off by the end of the day.
For our existing positions I would take a:-
BA sell (to limit losses due to further potential downside)
MKS hold (I see upside occuring for retailers in the 2-3 day time span)
NG hold (Defensive stocks will continue to be strong in times like these, I may call a sell later in the day as the market picks up)
On an additional note we expect financials to be red today, given that BoA and CITI have been implicated as banks needing additional capital which will dampen optimism in the market.
Overall, we see another red day for Europe as the Swine Flu pandemic continues to escalate from yesterday.
Dive2Blue out.
0 comments
Asia 280409 Morning Wrap
Morning!
Overnight, the US took on a similar negative tone over the swine flu, taking the treasuries and the dollar slightly higher. The EUR, AUD has weakened against the dollar while yen has strengthened. We may take this as a short term riska version theme as investors try to take profit from recent rallies.
Taking cues from the US over swine flu effect, we continue to anticipate to anticipate a lower opening over Asia market. Futures on the market seem to confirm this view, with Nikkei pointing down 0.46% and HSI down 2.51%.
We may expect oil, lodging and airlines stocks to continue to be hit as the many fears this swine flu will become a global pandemic, however, I do personally believe that we will hit some technical stops after the pharmaceutical run yesterday. Moreover, this may also imply swine impacts on retail stocks, and so we would like to avoid this sector.
I believe we shall see HSI to go down another 1%, while Nikkei down 0.5%. ASX, I believe it will be ending slightly lower over the session.
The stock picks today revolves over defensive plays, however, as noted by Dive2Blue, the Chinese auto sector may see some increases over the coming few days over speculations on acquisitions. I would advise to examine over Geely Auto (175.HK) at $0.95 entry and Brilliance China Auto (1114.hk) at $0.55.
I would also favour a defensive play over telcos names like PCCW (8.hk) at $3.10 as company news came out over new management system may boost confidence in the company. Other defensive plays such as CLP Holdings (2.hk) and Hong Kong & China Gas (3.hk) is also favoured.
I will not enter the AU market today, as I believe it is slightly out of sync.
As noted yesterday, the precious gold play is now, in our opinion, out of favour. Hence, should continue to underweight.
Thats it for today.
Happy trading.
ongy out.
Overnight, the US took on a similar negative tone over the swine flu, taking the treasuries and the dollar slightly higher. The EUR, AUD has weakened against the dollar while yen has strengthened. We may take this as a short term riska version theme as investors try to take profit from recent rallies.
Taking cues from the US over swine flu effect, we continue to anticipate to anticipate a lower opening over Asia market. Futures on the market seem to confirm this view, with Nikkei pointing down 0.46% and HSI down 2.51%.
We may expect oil, lodging and airlines stocks to continue to be hit as the many fears this swine flu will become a global pandemic, however, I do personally believe that we will hit some technical stops after the pharmaceutical run yesterday. Moreover, this may also imply swine impacts on retail stocks, and so we would like to avoid this sector.
I believe we shall see HSI to go down another 1%, while Nikkei down 0.5%. ASX, I believe it will be ending slightly lower over the session.
The stock picks today revolves over defensive plays, however, as noted by Dive2Blue, the Chinese auto sector may see some increases over the coming few days over speculations on acquisitions. I would advise to examine over Geely Auto (175.HK) at $0.95 entry and Brilliance China Auto (1114.hk) at $0.55.
I would also favour a defensive play over telcos names like PCCW (8.hk) at $3.10 as company news came out over new management system may boost confidence in the company. Other defensive plays such as CLP Holdings (2.hk) and Hong Kong & China Gas (3.hk) is also favoured.
I will not enter the AU market today, as I believe it is slightly out of sync.
As noted yesterday, the precious gold play is now, in our opinion, out of favour. Hence, should continue to underweight.
Thats it for today.
Happy trading.
ongy out.
0 comments
US270409 After Market Wrap
Afternoon all,
Looks like we had a Swine flu day overshadowing the session, taking the market lower by -0.64%, -1.01% and -0.88% for DJ's, S&P 500 and Nasdaq respectively, dragging travel, energy and hotel companies lower, while healthcare took the week ahead as per Dive2Blue discussed. Oil stocks also got pushed lower as investor fears the flu will dampen oil demand from various sectors, for example, the airlines.
GM contributed to taking the market higher from its low for a brief moment, as it continues to accelerates to its cost cutting measures while cutting off their liabilties.
As per discussed by me earlier in the midday Asia session, we expected some optimism to linger in the morning, but we also anticipated a similar selloff situation will occur in the banking sector after the stress test results, despite the positive overtone of the results, as what we discussed as a typical selloff after news affect. Investors are becoming more skeptical over this report as banks retreated on concern government stress tests will force some lenders to raise more capital through various channels.
For the day, the discretionary sector down 1.81%. Financials and energy overweighted the market, down 3.18% and 1.79% respectively. Industrials were down 1.45% while the techs were also down 0.88%. More defensive plays turned out to outrun the market, with staples up 0.11%, healthcare up 0.91% and utilities up 0.86%. However, telcos were down slightly by 0.23%.
That's it for the summary. Happy trading!
ongy out.
Looks like we had a Swine flu day overshadowing the session, taking the market lower by -0.64%, -1.01% and -0.88% for DJ's, S&P 500 and Nasdaq respectively, dragging travel, energy and hotel companies lower, while healthcare took the week ahead as per Dive2Blue discussed. Oil stocks also got pushed lower as investor fears the flu will dampen oil demand from various sectors, for example, the airlines.
GM contributed to taking the market higher from its low for a brief moment, as it continues to accelerates to its cost cutting measures while cutting off their liabilties.
As per discussed by me earlier in the midday Asia session, we expected some optimism to linger in the morning, but we also anticipated a similar selloff situation will occur in the banking sector after the stress test results, despite the positive overtone of the results, as what we discussed as a typical selloff after news affect. Investors are becoming more skeptical over this report as banks retreated on concern government stress tests will force some lenders to raise more capital through various channels.
For the day, the discretionary sector down 1.81%. Financials and energy overweighted the market, down 3.18% and 1.79% respectively. Industrials were down 1.45% while the techs were also down 0.88%. More defensive plays turned out to outrun the market, with staples up 0.11%, healthcare up 0.91% and utilities up 0.86%. However, telcos were down slightly by 0.23%.
That's it for the summary. Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Monday, 27 April 2009
US Morning wrap 270409
Monday, 27 April 2009
Hey guys just a quick wrap on the US market tonite,
We expect financials to continue the bearish sentiment felt throughout Asia and Europe on the back of comments by Summers and the potential outbreak of Swine Flu on the economy.
We are bullish on US automakers on speculation that GM may be selling assets to Geely Auto (China). On a personal view however, I see downside for Japanese Automakers in Detriot upsides.
Swine Flu will drive down the travel industry, and push pharmaceutical companies higher today as well.
We expect the US market to follow the trend presented by Asia at the start of today with an estimated 2-3% downside especially as Mexican trade begins to become affected (US's 3rd largest trading partner)
Declines in Oil and Gold have also followed the US markets today, which prompts declines in companies like Exxon.
All this will follow with a shift towards defensives, which establishes our play for the week of a defensive pharmaceutical mix, with some upside on the US Automarket.
We continue to see further downside in financial markets.
Today calls are a sell on GSK ADR outstanding's position
Watch DAI for potential opportunities
Buy on GS due to their increased risk appetite, which I interpret as a positive sign due to more agressive expansion in realizing the opportunity for gains @ 123.5
We expect financials to continue the bearish sentiment felt throughout Asia and Europe on the back of comments by Summers and the potential outbreak of Swine Flu on the economy.
We are bullish on US automakers on speculation that GM may be selling assets to Geely Auto (China). On a personal view however, I see downside for Japanese Automakers in Detriot upsides.
Swine Flu will drive down the travel industry, and push pharmaceutical companies higher today as well.
We expect the US market to follow the trend presented by Asia at the start of today with an estimated 2-3% downside especially as Mexican trade begins to become affected (US's 3rd largest trading partner)
Declines in Oil and Gold have also followed the US markets today, which prompts declines in companies like Exxon.
All this will follow with a shift towards defensives, which establishes our play for the week of a defensive pharmaceutical mix, with some upside on the US Automarket.
We continue to see further downside in financial markets.
Today calls are a sell on GSK ADR outstanding's position
Watch DAI for potential opportunities
Buy on GS due to their increased risk appetite, which I interpret as a positive sign due to more agressive expansion in realizing the opportunity for gains @ 123.5
0 comments
Asia 270409 Afternoon Briefing
Hi All,
As per discussed this morning, we did see technical sell off in HSI in the morning as it went down approximately 1%, while ASX rallied up 1.5% in the morning. Banks did lead the run with MQG up approximately 1.5% for the morning session, along with oil stocks. Spoecial mention goes to NIDO Petroleum (NDO.ax) that went up 16.16%.
However, swine flu effect took the market lower as market fears loom over the effect of swine flu taking recession deeper amongst the globe. Extended morning session saw Asia Pacific in general tanked, taking the market to the lows of the day. Swine flu and China slamming breaks on loan growth may have took HK financials to the low of the day, with China Insurance down 5.51%, while ICBC down 5.85% despite earnings forecast beaten estimates. Metals also went lower with industrial metals going red into the day.
Japan and Aussie took a late rally from financials, taking both market ending pretty much flat. As per Dive2Blue discussed, pharmaceuticals took the leading start for the week, while defensives also played out strong on the market, while HK went 2.74% down into the reds.
As we have always discussed, the precious metal play has been paying off the last week, and has reached our exit point. This sums up our Lihir Gold play with a net pay of about 5%.
We continue to maintain a bearish overtone over the sentiment, and questions whether the situation now is signaling the resumation of the bear market. We will continue to blog on this aspect throughout the week, but again, as to reiterate, we believe this is a bearish overtone on the market!
Anyhows, thats it for the day! Happy trading!
ongy out.
As per discussed this morning, we did see technical sell off in HSI in the morning as it went down approximately 1%, while ASX rallied up 1.5% in the morning. Banks did lead the run with MQG up approximately 1.5% for the morning session, along with oil stocks. Spoecial mention goes to NIDO Petroleum (NDO.ax) that went up 16.16%.
However, swine flu effect took the market lower as market fears loom over the effect of swine flu taking recession deeper amongst the globe. Extended morning session saw Asia Pacific in general tanked, taking the market to the lows of the day. Swine flu and China slamming breaks on loan growth may have took HK financials to the low of the day, with China Insurance down 5.51%, while ICBC down 5.85% despite earnings forecast beaten estimates. Metals also went lower with industrial metals going red into the day.
Japan and Aussie took a late rally from financials, taking both market ending pretty much flat. As per Dive2Blue discussed, pharmaceuticals took the leading start for the week, while defensives also played out strong on the market, while HK went 2.74% down into the reds.
As we have always discussed, the precious metal play has been paying off the last week, and has reached our exit point. This sums up our Lihir Gold play with a net pay of about 5%.
We continue to maintain a bearish overtone over the sentiment, and questions whether the situation now is signaling the resumation of the bear market. We will continue to blog on this aspect throughout the week, but again, as to reiterate, we believe this is a bearish overtone on the market!
Anyhows, thats it for the day! Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Sorry a bit of a momentum trade here, for the record of monitoring
I call a buy on
BA @ 152... I believe it has been oversold today due to overreaction from swine flu.
I call a buy on
BA @ 152... I believe it has been oversold today due to overreaction from swine flu.
0 comments
FTSE 270409 MORNING BRIEF
Hello everyone,
Following on from Asia, it seems that the bullish sentiment that persevered over the weekend could be coming to an abrupt end as pessimism trading resumes.
European Futures pointed downwards as a result of the swine flu scare, today we expect a red day in the FTSE. Where financials may lead the way downwards following Asia.
I reemphasize my stand on the strong standing of Pharmaceuticals, which I believe were oversold upon results announcement, and has now been reemphasized by the swine flu out break.
Oil seems to have fallen back down upon reports of high inventories, I believe this may prompt a buy call for oil stocks somewhere within the week... but for now I would hold off that judgement
For calls today:-
Sell GSK (I expect profit taking tomorrow on this stock), I believe this position should be closed after midday at best price.
Buy on MKS @330 (subject to revision)
Buy NG @ 547 (move to defensives)
Following on from Asia, it seems that the bullish sentiment that persevered over the weekend could be coming to an abrupt end as pessimism trading resumes.
European Futures pointed downwards as a result of the swine flu scare, today we expect a red day in the FTSE. Where financials may lead the way downwards following Asia.
I reemphasize my stand on the strong standing of Pharmaceuticals, which I believe were oversold upon results announcement, and has now been reemphasized by the swine flu out break.
Oil seems to have fallen back down upon reports of high inventories, I believe this may prompt a buy call for oil stocks somewhere within the week... but for now I would hold off that judgement
For calls today:-
Sell GSK (I expect profit taking tomorrow on this stock), I believe this position should be closed after midday at best price.
Buy on MKS @330 (subject to revision)
Buy NG @ 547 (move to defensives)
1 comments
Asia 270409 Morning Brief
Morning!
To make it brief today, taking leads from the sense of optimism from good data and a positive notes on stress test result, we expect to start off the week, Asia will in general take this cue and have a green start.
Dive2Blue has recommended pharmaceutical to be a top pick for the start of this week, while I personally believe oil stocks, names like Santos (STO.AX), Oil Search (OSH.AX), CNOOC (883.HK) will be decent watch for the start of this week, given that oil has reentered above the $50/bbl mark.
Optimism may come from U.S. bank sector, and we may see a continual run over the banking sectors in Asia Pacific. Diversified financials shall be the names we are looking into. We want to pick names such as Macquarie Group (MQG.AX) and ICBC (1398.HK), but avoid consumer credit-focused names as we expect the consumer credit sector continues to deteriorate.
Consumer discretionary and staples is also anticipated to go up today, but on a slower leg as compared to the market.
Despite the sense of optimism in the market, we maintain to have a bearish overtone over the market. We continue to favour the precious metal trade, and continue to recommend on a buy on Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) and SPDR Gold (2824.HK) with the greenbacks continue to fall, while bearish over industrial metals.
Provided we had Asia had a mixed day on Friday, we may anticipate some technical sell off in HSI, but we expect ASX200 to rally today. We anticipate 1.5- 2% movements for ASX200, while we see HSI to end 0.5% - 1% up.
Thats about it for this morning! Happy trading!
ongy out.
To make it brief today, taking leads from the sense of optimism from good data and a positive notes on stress test result, we expect to start off the week, Asia will in general take this cue and have a green start.
Dive2Blue has recommended pharmaceutical to be a top pick for the start of this week, while I personally believe oil stocks, names like Santos (STO.AX), Oil Search (OSH.AX), CNOOC (883.HK) will be decent watch for the start of this week, given that oil has reentered above the $50/bbl mark.
Optimism may come from U.S. bank sector, and we may see a continual run over the banking sectors in Asia Pacific. Diversified financials shall be the names we are looking into. We want to pick names such as Macquarie Group (MQG.AX) and ICBC (1398.HK), but avoid consumer credit-focused names as we expect the consumer credit sector continues to deteriorate.
Consumer discretionary and staples is also anticipated to go up today, but on a slower leg as compared to the market.
Despite the sense of optimism in the market, we maintain to have a bearish overtone over the market. We continue to favour the precious metal trade, and continue to recommend on a buy on Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) and SPDR Gold (2824.HK) with the greenbacks continue to fall, while bearish over industrial metals.
Provided we had Asia had a mixed day on Friday, we may anticipate some technical sell off in HSI, but we expect ASX200 to rally today. We anticipate 1.5- 2% movements for ASX200, while we see HSI to end 0.5% - 1% up.
Thats about it for this morning! Happy trading!
ongy out.
1 comments
Friday, 24 April 2009
US Morning wrap 240409
Friday, 24 April 2009
Morning!
Since I'm on the run today, I will give some brief comments over my view for the market today.
Leads from Asia was mixed, although it was general down for Japan, Korea and Australia.
However, leads from crudes remains to point some support for the oil stocks, while our continual emphasis on precious metals play is paying off.
As for the market today, I personally anticipate a big move with the financials. My opinion goes on the downside given that UK may lose its AAA rating, with the economy contracting 1.9%. While releases from Bloomberg points to banks may struggle to raise money after stress test as bad asset triples, which continues to confirm our opinion over bad debt issues from consumer credits.
Despite the current optimism in FTSE, as we speak now, futures are also pointing down, indicating a lower start. I believe the market today will go red roughly 2%, with regional banks and consumer crediting lending businesses dragging the market down.
GM and Chrysler may continue its decline over bankruptcy concern, and consumer staples may have a technical rebound after an unanticipated selloff from my behalf. I continue to favour this defensive play amid the cautious trading over the current market rally.
I must note, however, if the results from stress test provides positive tone, the market will continue this current rally, and it may be an option to enter into sold down financials over the last few sessions.
As of today, I continue to recommend the following trade:
1. Sell Citigroup (C)
2. Buy Spdr Gold
3. Sell S&P500 financials
4.Buy S&P 500 Healthcare
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Since I'm on the run today, I will give some brief comments over my view for the market today.
Leads from Asia was mixed, although it was general down for Japan, Korea and Australia.
However, leads from crudes remains to point some support for the oil stocks, while our continual emphasis on precious metals play is paying off.
As for the market today, I personally anticipate a big move with the financials. My opinion goes on the downside given that UK may lose its AAA rating, with the economy contracting 1.9%. While releases from Bloomberg points to banks may struggle to raise money after stress test as bad asset triples, which continues to confirm our opinion over bad debt issues from consumer credits.
Despite the current optimism in FTSE, as we speak now, futures are also pointing down, indicating a lower start. I believe the market today will go red roughly 2%, with regional banks and consumer crediting lending businesses dragging the market down.
GM and Chrysler may continue its decline over bankruptcy concern, and consumer staples may have a technical rebound after an unanticipated selloff from my behalf. I continue to favour this defensive play amid the cautious trading over the current market rally.
I must note, however, if the results from stress test provides positive tone, the market will continue this current rally, and it may be an option to enter into sold down financials over the last few sessions.
As of today, I continue to recommend the following trade:
1. Sell Citigroup (C)
2. Buy Spdr Gold
3. Sell S&P500 financials
4.Buy S&P 500 Healthcare
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
Asia 240409 Morning Wrap
Morning!
Making this a quick wrap today. Overnight saw optimism fueling into the market again over Mariott, Ebay and Cnoocphillips. This translated to an increase in risk appetite over the currency market, as we see AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP all going back up towards their uptrend movement.
A quick note should also be taken from US financials that went up by more than 3% from positive earnings. Asia may take cues to start off financials on a positive note amid continual deterioriation in consumer credit in banks that may induce further write offs.
Bullish sentiment overnight from commodity may also see some support for the oil stocks, however, we remain neutral over materials as industrial metals continue to stay weak.
Consumer stocks may continue its run from the bullish idea over consumption recovery. We may expect Autos to continue its runs while we see lodging stocks to follow US cues for a green day.
Although we continue to favour the precious metal play, we may see some setback today due to the overall bullish tone on the market last night.
Having said our expectations for individual sectors, however, I personally continue to believe the markets should be relatively flat as investors remains cautious over the upcoming data.
As for our trade recommendation we believe:
1. Toyota (2703.T) remains a buy.
2. Oil Search (OSH.AX) may be a buy.
3. Geely Auto (175.HK) is a buy.
4. Regal Hotels Intl Holdings (78.HK) is a buy.
Good luck to all and happy trading for today!
ongy out.
Making this a quick wrap today. Overnight saw optimism fueling into the market again over Mariott, Ebay and Cnoocphillips. This translated to an increase in risk appetite over the currency market, as we see AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP all going back up towards their uptrend movement.
A quick note should also be taken from US financials that went up by more than 3% from positive earnings. Asia may take cues to start off financials on a positive note amid continual deterioriation in consumer credit in banks that may induce further write offs.
Bullish sentiment overnight from commodity may also see some support for the oil stocks, however, we remain neutral over materials as industrial metals continue to stay weak.
Consumer stocks may continue its run from the bullish idea over consumption recovery. We may expect Autos to continue its runs while we see lodging stocks to follow US cues for a green day.
Although we continue to favour the precious metal play, we may see some setback today due to the overall bullish tone on the market last night.
Having said our expectations for individual sectors, however, I personally continue to believe the markets should be relatively flat as investors remains cautious over the upcoming data.
As for our trade recommendation we believe:
1. Toyota (2703.T) remains a buy.
2. Oil Search (OSH.AX) may be a buy.
3. Geely Auto (175.HK) is a buy.
4. Regal Hotels Intl Holdings (78.HK) is a buy.
Good luck to all and happy trading for today!
ongy out.
0 comments
US Afternoon Wrap 230409
Afternoon all,
I'll make this a quick wrap up. DJ and S&P headed down south early in the morning, but recovered from the trough strongly in the afternoon session as the market shrugged off poor home sales data and rising jobless claims, taking both indices up 0.89% and 0.99% respectively.
A snapshot of the sectors' performance are as follow:
Consumer Discretionary: +0.08%
Consumer Staples: -0.18%
Energy: +1.82%
Financials +4.50%
Industrial: +1.40%
IT: +0.44%
Materials: -0.28%
Tellecomm: -0.34%
Utilities: +0.35%
Given dismal expectations over earnings, to be honest, any earnings that hits the mark will certainly fuel some sense of optimism. Hence, late earnings news from Mariott, Microsoft and Ebay beats consensus estimates, and fuels optimism over the market, again, over the issue of bottoming out and recovery. Cnoocphillips also took the energy sector up with their earnings.
Autos went up in general by 4%, fueled by optimism in the market. However, GM went down 4% as expected.
Financials pulled market up in general for the entire session, thanks largely by diversified banks, may be a trade over the optimism for the stress test result tomorrow, which in our opinion, continues to be a bear over the aforementioned reasons in previous post.
Looking ahead, in our opinion, we remain cautious over the next session despite the continual optimism over the current market rally. We remain to believe this is a BEAR MARKET RALLY and the market is runing ahead of itself as data continual to pointing to a deterioriating economy. We remain to favour the precious metal and defensive plays.
A comment over our recommendation:
Short on Citigroup (C) proved well: +1.54%
Sell on Spdr Financials did not pay off: - 3.06%
Buy on Spdr Gold: +1.63%
Buy on Walmart: -0.20%
That's about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
I'll make this a quick wrap up. DJ and S&P headed down south early in the morning, but recovered from the trough strongly in the afternoon session as the market shrugged off poor home sales data and rising jobless claims, taking both indices up 0.89% and 0.99% respectively.
A snapshot of the sectors' performance are as follow:
Consumer Discretionary: +0.08%
Consumer Staples: -0.18%
Energy: +1.82%
Financials +4.50%
Industrial: +1.40%
IT: +0.44%
Materials: -0.28%
Tellecomm: -0.34%
Utilities: +0.35%
Given dismal expectations over earnings, to be honest, any earnings that hits the mark will certainly fuel some sense of optimism. Hence, late earnings news from Mariott, Microsoft and Ebay beats consensus estimates, and fuels optimism over the market, again, over the issue of bottoming out and recovery. Cnoocphillips also took the energy sector up with their earnings.
Autos went up in general by 4%, fueled by optimism in the market. However, GM went down 4% as expected.
Financials pulled market up in general for the entire session, thanks largely by diversified banks, may be a trade over the optimism for the stress test result tomorrow, which in our opinion, continues to be a bear over the aforementioned reasons in previous post.
Looking ahead, in our opinion, we remain cautious over the next session despite the continual optimism over the current market rally. We remain to believe this is a BEAR MARKET RALLY and the market is runing ahead of itself as data continual to pointing to a deterioriating economy. We remain to favour the precious metal and defensive plays.
A comment over our recommendation:
Short on Citigroup (C) proved well: +1.54%
Sell on Spdr Financials did not pay off: - 3.06%
Buy on Spdr Gold: +1.63%
Buy on Walmart: -0.20%
That's about it today.
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
FTSE CLOSE WRAPUP 240309
Well it looks like the FTSE ended relatively flat at -0.31 pts dragged down in the last few hours by financials as HSBA lost 2.46% and BARC -0.34%
Semi nationalized banks like Llyod fell by 4.48% and RBS by 0.94% by the end of the trading day.
Retailers staged huge gains on the FTSE to keep the index flat with Tesco gaining 1.62% Debehams was the pack leader with a large 21.65% gain while M&S leveled a bit to record a 3.26% gain.
On stock picks RDSA gained 0.95% and BP 1.33% coming up from a red morning on oil price optimism... Commodities also had a stellar day with Rio Tinto pushing up following the close of the Australian Market.
Again an over night position on GSK which closed down 3.19%, we expect a modest recovery by tomorrow.
Dive2Blue out.
Semi nationalized banks like Llyod fell by 4.48% and RBS by 0.94% by the end of the trading day.
Retailers staged huge gains on the FTSE to keep the index flat with Tesco gaining 1.62% Debehams was the pack leader with a large 21.65% gain while M&S leveled a bit to record a 3.26% gain.
On stock picks RDSA gained 0.95% and BP 1.33% coming up from a red morning on oil price optimism... Commodities also had a stellar day with Rio Tinto pushing up following the close of the Australian Market.
Again an over night position on GSK which closed down 3.19%, we expect a modest recovery by tomorrow.
Dive2Blue out.
2 comments
Thursday, 23 April 2009
US Morning Wrap 230409
Thursday, 23 April 2009
Morning all,
Having Apple and Ebay recording 1Q profits that beats the analyst estimates, and taking cues from the currency market with the Euro gaining against the dollar, we see the market is currently fuelling some sense of optimism to another day, speculating the pick up in the consumption market signals a bottoming of the recession. This sees the futures for both DJIA and S&P500 pointing up to confirm such view. Based on this, we believe US may open higher, however we will see such optimism fading away given the increasing initial jobless claims rising to 640,000 last week, pointing, again, towards a weak economy.
We may see the financials to open up taking cues from Barclay's and Credit Suisse's result, however, given the continual market jitters over consumption credit worsening and banks may be required to disclose capital needs after stress-test results, we believe financials shall head down south during the session.
The auto industry will also take a hit after GM is requested by treasury to continual writedown, while a loss into the market share to the foreign competitors will take the autos into the reds. This may also spook the optimism in the commodities throughout the day, and take the crude and industrial metals into the reds.
On our ends, we recommend trade today as follows, with a theme to favour the defensives and precious metal plays:
1. Continual sell on Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan (JPM) given the bank's exposure in the credit card business.
2. Dive2Blue suggests a buy on GSK as he believe Pharmaceutical has been overly sold off.
3. Buy Spdr Gold
4. Buy into Walmart (WMT) for the defensive play.
5. Buy Spdr Consumer Staples Fund
6. Sell Spdr Financial Fund
Happy trading!
ongy out.
Having Apple and Ebay recording 1Q profits that beats the analyst estimates, and taking cues from the currency market with the Euro gaining against the dollar, we see the market is currently fuelling some sense of optimism to another day, speculating the pick up in the consumption market signals a bottoming of the recession. This sees the futures for both DJIA and S&P500 pointing up to confirm such view. Based on this, we believe US may open higher, however we will see such optimism fading away given the increasing initial jobless claims rising to 640,000 last week, pointing, again, towards a weak economy.
We may see the financials to open up taking cues from Barclay's and Credit Suisse's result, however, given the continual market jitters over consumption credit worsening and banks may be required to disclose capital needs after stress-test results, we believe financials shall head down south during the session.
The auto industry will also take a hit after GM is requested by treasury to continual writedown, while a loss into the market share to the foreign competitors will take the autos into the reds. This may also spook the optimism in the commodities throughout the day, and take the crude and industrial metals into the reds.
On our ends, we recommend trade today as follows, with a theme to favour the defensives and precious metal plays:
1. Continual sell on Citigroup (C) and JP Morgan (JPM) given the bank's exposure in the credit card business.
2. Dive2Blue suggests a buy on GSK as he believe Pharmaceutical has been overly sold off.
3. Buy Spdr Gold
4. Buy into Walmart (WMT) for the defensive play.
5. Buy Spdr Consumer Staples Fund
6. Sell Spdr Financial Fund
Happy trading!
ongy out.
0 comments
FTSE market opening 230409
Afternoon everyone,
I'll make this a quick comment on the morning LSE today...
Looks like financials flattish driven up by Credit Suisse's positive earnings, and down by the indications of a increased bank bailout fund by the British government. I see banks like RBS and Llyods most affected by the down side than HSBC and Barclays.
Resource plays are expected to have a positive overtone to them following Australia's resource gain pushed by Rio Tinto on speculation of another BHP takeover, I do expect some tapering off of the price as the day draws to an end however; with Rio currently up 1 1/19ths of a percent (1.38% basically). Of course this will follow after a decent rise towards midday.
For calls on UK stocks today~ look for oil stocks:
-BP
-RDSA
and maybe TESCO (M&S is up 5% at this reporting time, lol)
For next day gains avoid financials, stress test result announcements should promote caution especially given indicators. However, prepare to look at:-
-GSK, based on expected recovery after all the bad news that has hit it~ I've decided pharmaceuticals has been oversold.
-In addition I believe BP and Royal Dutch Shell are potential overnight plays, given the bullish commodity sentiment which I expect to carry over till tomorrow at least.
Oh I almost forgot.... I expect a flattish FTSE today despite red financials maybe down 0.5% given investors are being cautious.
I'll make this a quick comment on the morning LSE today...
Looks like financials flattish driven up by Credit Suisse's positive earnings, and down by the indications of a increased bank bailout fund by the British government. I see banks like RBS and Llyods most affected by the down side than HSBC and Barclays.
Resource plays are expected to have a positive overtone to them following Australia's resource gain pushed by Rio Tinto on speculation of another BHP takeover, I do expect some tapering off of the price as the day draws to an end however; with Rio currently up 1 1/19ths of a percent (1.38% basically). Of course this will follow after a decent rise towards midday.
For calls on UK stocks today~ look for oil stocks:
-BP
-RDSA
and maybe TESCO (M&S is up 5% at this reporting time, lol)
For next day gains avoid financials, stress test result announcements should promote caution especially given indicators. However, prepare to look at:-
-GSK, based on expected recovery after all the bad news that has hit it~ I've decided pharmaceuticals has been oversold.
-In addition I believe BP and Royal Dutch Shell are potential overnight plays, given the bullish commodity sentiment which I expect to carry over till tomorrow at least.
Oh I almost forgot.... I expect a flattish FTSE today despite red financials maybe down 0.5% given investors are being cautious.
0 comments
Asia 230409 Afternoon Wrap
Japan followed cue from US, with financials dragging Nikkei down in the morning trades. Amid the cautious trades, carmakers generally went up with Toyota leading the pack after Goldman gave a buy rating. Afternoon session saw Nikkei pushed further up the green territories from the reds, ending up 1.37% from speculations over brewery takeover.
However, ASX200 and HSI deviated from this cue, with financials starting mix with banks up over the board and insurance like AXA Asia down 3.48%. MQG,up 6.90%, was the winner for the day which pulled the ASX200 to finish up 2.04%. Financials in HK also ended across up 1%, amid cautious trading. The lead from carmakers also lifted resources with FMG up 1.95% and Angang up 1.60%. Revived talk between BHP and RIO also saw both companies up 3.14% and 6.06% respectively in AU market. Oil stocks ended flat or down south, taking cues from the crude going down south, while defensive names continued to be favoured, up consumer discretionary up 3.44%, while utilities up 1.44%, however, telecomms was only up 0.52% for the Aussie market. For HK, brewery and ultilies ended slightly up, while telecomms had a hard rally up 1.5%.
A special note goes to CRC and CSR that went up 3.94% and 7.84% respectively, possibility due JPM's comment that Chinese gov't would not withdraw stimulus money from the system, leading infrastructures up in China.
We note that we are disappointed with the market's price action today. We may consider today as a technical rebound from the last two lower sessions, amid investors are becoming cautious from low volume. Taking cue from precious metals, we also see continual cautious investors waiting to see what will happen overnight, despite optimism has pulled risky currencies further up towards their resistance line again.
We may possibly see more profit taking actions for tomorrow, while the defensive name + precious metal play is still being favoured. We will wait and see the lead from the overnight market tonight.
A summary for our trade recommendation today:
Woolsworth (WOW.AX): + 2.88%
Telstra (TLS.AX): +0.31%
Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) : +1.76%
Toyota Motors (7203.T): +3.46%
Sony (6758.T): + 1.81%
Kirin (2503.T): +3.90%
Happy trading!
ongy out.
However, ASX200 and HSI deviated from this cue, with financials starting mix with banks up over the board and insurance like AXA Asia down 3.48%. MQG,up 6.90%, was the winner for the day which pulled the ASX200 to finish up 2.04%. Financials in HK also ended across up 1%, amid cautious trading. The lead from carmakers also lifted resources with FMG up 1.95% and Angang up 1.60%. Revived talk between BHP and RIO also saw both companies up 3.14% and 6.06% respectively in AU market. Oil stocks ended flat or down south, taking cues from the crude going down south, while defensive names continued to be favoured, up consumer discretionary up 3.44%, while utilities up 1.44%, however, telecomms was only up 0.52% for the Aussie market. For HK, brewery and ultilies ended slightly up, while telecomms had a hard rally up 1.5%.
A special note goes to CRC and CSR that went up 3.94% and 7.84% respectively, possibility due JPM's comment that Chinese gov't would not withdraw stimulus money from the system, leading infrastructures up in China.
We note that we are disappointed with the market's price action today. We may consider today as a technical rebound from the last two lower sessions, amid investors are becoming cautious from low volume. Taking cue from precious metals, we also see continual cautious investors waiting to see what will happen overnight, despite optimism has pulled risky currencies further up towards their resistance line again.
We may possibly see more profit taking actions for tomorrow, while the defensive name + precious metal play is still being favoured. We will wait and see the lead from the overnight market tonight.
A summary for our trade recommendation today:
Woolsworth (WOW.AX): + 2.88%
Telstra (TLS.AX): +0.31%
Lihir Gold (LGL.AX) : +1.76%
Toyota Motors (7203.T): +3.46%
Sony (6758.T): + 1.81%
Kirin (2503.T): +3.90%
Happy trading!
ongy out.
1 comments
Hang Seng & Nikkei 230409 Morning Brief
Morning all,
It looks like the market settled from the housing price rally when I woke up this morning. I was relatively pleased and relieved at that.
Looking at the day ahead, we expect Hong Kong Financial stocks to drop following the bearish US financial sentiment (and Europe had better follow later today)...
On the Nikkei; financials should be dropping as well; however, we do see a potential flat day for the Nikkei as electronic stocks and potentially auto stocks rally on positive US housing data (Auto stocks suffered drops in previous day trading due to expected lossses). My understanding of the Japanese consumer market is a bit lacking, so Kirin's proposed acquisition of Lion Nathan (where no price has been set yet) may drag the stock up given that an overseas acquisition will be seen in positive light given the shrinking Japanese consumer market, though this offer has been expected for quite sometime now. With regards to tech stocks, despite AMD's dismal performance in the US... I predict Japanese tech stocks to also rally given the bullish US fhousing data. This is my morning call for Japan:
Buy Sony (6758)
Buy Toyota (7203)
Buy Kirin (2503)
In Hong Kong we expect a 1% red day due to financials with a shift as ongy has interated in his ASX opener towards defensive stocks and precious metal related stocks.
It looks like the market settled from the housing price rally when I woke up this morning. I was relatively pleased and relieved at that.
Looking at the day ahead, we expect Hong Kong Financial stocks to drop following the bearish US financial sentiment (and Europe had better follow later today)...
On the Nikkei; financials should be dropping as well; however, we do see a potential flat day for the Nikkei as electronic stocks and potentially auto stocks rally on positive US housing data (Auto stocks suffered drops in previous day trading due to expected lossses). My understanding of the Japanese consumer market is a bit lacking, so Kirin's proposed acquisition of Lion Nathan (where no price has been set yet) may drag the stock up given that an overseas acquisition will be seen in positive light given the shrinking Japanese consumer market, though this offer has been expected for quite sometime now. With regards to tech stocks, despite AMD's dismal performance in the US... I predict Japanese tech stocks to also rally given the bullish US fhousing data. This is my morning call for Japan:
Buy Sony (6758)
Buy Toyota (7203)
Buy Kirin (2503)
In Hong Kong we expect a 1% red day due to financials with a shift as ongy has interated in his ASX opener towards defensive stocks and precious metal related stocks.
0 comments
ASX 230409 Morning Wrap
Given the renewed worries on Banks from Morgan Stanley that snuffed out an early rally of 1%, to end down -1.04%, we expect Asia to follow this cue to start off the day on a more bearish tone.
For the ASX200, we would anticipate a continual financial sector profit taking to unwind profits from the rally from March 9. Taking cues from the CRB, crude and industrial metal prices overnight, we may also anticipate the materials sector to pare some of the gains made yesterday, if not going further down south.
We will be seeing the precious metal names to be the rallying hard today after a rotation into precious metals overnight, with silver up 2.03% and gold up 1.09% upon renewed worries for the delicate economy. (This stock market - precious metal correlation shall be discussed later on in the week.)
Again, given the bearish tone we have set in place, we believe the ASX will have a red day, possibly going down south between 1.5%-2%. However, we continue to favour the defensives.
Recommended trade on the Aussie market today:
Buy LGL
Buy WOW
BUY TLS
Lastly, good luck to all with the market today!
ongy out.
For the ASX200, we would anticipate a continual financial sector profit taking to unwind profits from the rally from March 9. Taking cues from the CRB, crude and industrial metal prices overnight, we may also anticipate the materials sector to pare some of the gains made yesterday, if not going further down south.
We will be seeing the precious metal names to be the rallying hard today after a rotation into precious metals overnight, with silver up 2.03% and gold up 1.09% upon renewed worries for the delicate economy. (This stock market - precious metal correlation shall be discussed later on in the week.)
Again, given the bearish tone we have set in place, we believe the ASX will have a red day, possibly going down south between 1.5%-2%. However, we continue to favour the defensives.
Recommended trade on the Aussie market today:
Buy LGL
Buy WOW
BUY TLS
Lastly, good luck to all with the market today!
ongy out.
0 comments
US Afternoon Wrap 220409
Some optimisic earnings report and a suprising housing price index, beating the consensus estimate by 1.4%, spooked an early rally on the market.
However, DJs and S&P ended the day in reds, paring gains from early sessions with financials snuffing out the rally, with Morgan Stanley renewing bank worries and GM saying their likelihood to miss debt payment deadline.
As per our discussion in the morning, we saw investors are becoming cautious and seeks to profit take - signs of turning towards a risk averse theme ahead of important economic events and the stress test.
However, suprises with Ebay and Apple's earnings lifted the tech sector to close to flat for NADAQ.
A summary of the market:
Dows Jones Industrials: - 1.04%
S&P 500: - 0.77%
NASDAQ: +0.14%
S&P 500 Energy: -1.40%
S&P 500 Financials: -3.82%
s&P 500 Consumer Staples: -1.37%
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary: 0.87%
S&P 500 Industrials: +1.14%
S&P 500 IT: +0.21%
s&P 500 Telecom: +0.71%
S&P500 Utilities: -1.23%
Looking ahead from today, we should expect further profit taking from the market. We see further shorts on Citigroup for after hours. Further comments shall be made for morning wrap.
ongy out.
However, DJs and S&P ended the day in reds, paring gains from early sessions with financials snuffing out the rally, with Morgan Stanley renewing bank worries and GM saying their likelihood to miss debt payment deadline.
As per our discussion in the morning, we saw investors are becoming cautious and seeks to profit take - signs of turning towards a risk averse theme ahead of important economic events and the stress test.
However, suprises with Ebay and Apple's earnings lifted the tech sector to close to flat for NADAQ.
A summary of the market:
Dows Jones Industrials: - 1.04%
S&P 500: - 0.77%
NASDAQ: +0.14%
S&P 500 Energy: -1.40%
S&P 500 Financials: -3.82%
s&P 500 Consumer Staples: -1.37%
S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary: 0.87%
S&P 500 Industrials: +1.14%
S&P 500 IT: +0.21%
s&P 500 Telecom: +0.71%
S&P500 Utilities: -1.23%
Looking ahead from today, we should expect further profit taking from the market. We see further shorts on Citigroup for after hours. Further comments shall be made for morning wrap.
ongy out.
0 comments
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
UK Market close and US Midday
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
Well what can we say? We can't get everything right, did not expect such positive housing data to come out at such a key moment.
UK financials were on their way downwards with the entire market almost down by half a percent before the vital news broke out that sparked a quick rally. Closing up at 0.93% while financials reclaimed their gains earlier in the day.
The US market also opened on bearish sentiment with most major financials down at the start. With a flurry of optimistic earnings reports following Morgan Stanley's slightly negative one driven by AT&T, Ford and GE pushing the whole market up.
There are also rumours of Freddie Mac's Acting CFO's suicide, this may prove another turning point if there is a significant case for it, but we shall leave that for now.
UK financials were on their way downwards with the entire market almost down by half a percent before the vital news broke out that sparked a quick rally. Closing up at 0.93% while financials reclaimed their gains earlier in the day.
The US market also opened on bearish sentiment with most major financials down at the start. With a flurry of optimistic earnings reports following Morgan Stanley's slightly negative one driven by AT&T, Ford and GE pushing the whole market up.
There are also rumours of Freddie Mac's Acting CFO's suicide, this may prove another turning point if there is a significant case for it, but we shall leave that for now.
0 comments
220409 US Morning Wrap
Looking at the pre-market session, we see futures are pointing downwards for DJ's and S&P. We should expect a lower start today for the market. Taking cues from the currency market, we see the market sentiment is obviously taking the risk averse theme, with the risky currencies all falling from their highs from yesterday. We also see the yen and dollar strengthening to confirm this view.
Despite Geither's comment yesterday over banks have adequate capital, comments over increasing bad debts over credit card loans and other consumer loans from banks and having the stress test result on Friday, we should see the financials to be weighing the market today.
Moreoever, Nestle 1Q take forex hit, CPU maker AMD posts loss with CEO doubting PC market has bottomed, while Yahoo continued to cut staff. This confirms the delicate status on the economy, and provides an opinion that the previous gains on the market will be short lived.
Looking at the resources/ materials, looking at cues from the industrial metals and crude, I also believe the energy sector will end up in the reds.
Looking ahead for today, we shall also anticipate the housing price index due to be released will also weigh on the market.
Personally I believe the financials shall be a seller, while the tech's will also be weighing on the market. We shall see a DJ and S&P to lower between 1.5-2.5%.
The trade recommendation today looks for shorting citigroup (C) and long into defensive names.
ongy out.
Despite Geither's comment yesterday over banks have adequate capital, comments over increasing bad debts over credit card loans and other consumer loans from banks and having the stress test result on Friday, we should see the financials to be weighing the market today.
Moreoever, Nestle 1Q take forex hit, CPU maker AMD posts loss with CEO doubting PC market has bottomed, while Yahoo continued to cut staff. This confirms the delicate status on the economy, and provides an opinion that the previous gains on the market will be short lived.
Looking at the resources/ materials, looking at cues from the industrial metals and crude, I also believe the energy sector will end up in the reds.
Looking ahead for today, we shall also anticipate the housing price index due to be released will also weigh on the market.
Personally I believe the financials shall be a seller, while the tech's will also be weighing on the market. We shall see a DJ and S&P to lower between 1.5-2.5%.
The trade recommendation today looks for shorting citigroup (C) and long into defensive names.
ongy out.
1 comments
UK Market Report 10AM
The FTSE is currently green though barely; however just to update, financials are still performing strongly with:
Barclays +7.54%
HSBC +1.67%
RBS +1.30%
LLOY +4.95%
It seems like the optimism in the London market from Geithner is still present, with Barclays up 7.54% due to its drop yesterday to match up with the over 2% again on its ADR traded shares in the US.
I am currently standing by my bearish view that financial stocks will taper off later today, and feel that this optimism is being overplayed.
The FTSE is still trading near low levels, and the possibility of a red day is still present, though perhaps the performance of the US market may present a trigger, will follow up on that soon.
The British budget report is to be delivered today; however, the released minutes have indicated encouraging initial effects for the asset purchasing program... I'm not sure what effect this will have as of yet.
---------------------------------
Additional comment:
Seems like British unemployment rate has risen along with a record budget deficit (unemployment seems to have risen by an amount lower than expected)... I wonder how the British economy is going to recover from this one... >.<
Barclays +7.54%
HSBC +1.67%
RBS +1.30%
LLOY +4.95%
It seems like the optimism in the London market from Geithner is still present, with Barclays up 7.54% due to its drop yesterday to match up with the over 2% again on its ADR traded shares in the US.
I am currently standing by my bearish view that financial stocks will taper off later today, and feel that this optimism is being overplayed.
The FTSE is still trading near low levels, and the possibility of a red day is still present, though perhaps the performance of the US market may present a trigger, will follow up on that soon.
The British budget report is to be delivered today; however, the released minutes have indicated encouraging initial effects for the asset purchasing program... I'm not sure what effect this will have as of yet.
---------------------------------
Additional comment:
Seems like British unemployment rate has risen along with a record budget deficit (unemployment seems to have risen by an amount lower than expected)... I wonder how the British economy is going to recover from this one... >.<
0 comments
Sorry about the rushed post wanted to get that out before I establish more views,
I expect the optimism on Geithner's comments to diminish given the Asian reaction to these comments, especially as investors remain cautious, Geithner's credibility has gone down in my books (like... really down) to the extent I view his recent comment as a PR play to shore up confidence.
Oil looks to be down as well, justifying a lower BP opening, my overall bear on the market is still present however, despite the current financial pull on the FTSE... The high recently released deficient should act as a sufficient catalyst to drive the market down for the morning, given the limitations it will place on potential stimulus plans and further bank bailouts. In a premature view, I see US financials dropping due to overextension on Geithner's comments (again Asian reaction to the comments).
Personally I question the plausibility of the stress test, given Geithner's random outbursts of information feeding when the market goes bad.
I expect the optimism on Geithner's comments to diminish given the Asian reaction to these comments, especially as investors remain cautious, Geithner's credibility has gone down in my books (like... really down) to the extent I view his recent comment as a PR play to shore up confidence.
Oil looks to be down as well, justifying a lower BP opening, my overall bear on the market is still present however, despite the current financial pull on the FTSE... The high recently released deficient should act as a sufficient catalyst to drive the market down for the morning, given the limitations it will place on potential stimulus plans and further bank bailouts. In a premature view, I see US financials dropping due to overextension on Geithner's comments (again Asian reaction to the comments).
Personally I question the plausibility of the stress test, given Geithner's random outbursts of information feeding when the market goes bad.
0 comments
Our approach
Hi all,
Following from Dive2Blue's last post, I'm here to give a heads up over our approach to this blog. As of today we would plan to kick start our Global Financial Analytics blog by giving everyone our views and opinion for each market' s morning wrap and a afternoon wrap. We will try to provide our opinion over the market and at times, be more specific over individual stocks as our recommendation.
Please do let us know how we may improve, we look forward to your posts! =)
Ongy out.
Following from Dive2Blue's last post, I'm here to give a heads up over our approach to this blog. As of today we would plan to kick start our Global Financial Analytics blog by giving everyone our views and opinion for each market' s morning wrap and a afternoon wrap. We will try to provide our opinion over the market and at times, be more specific over individual stocks as our recommendation.
Please do let us know how we may improve, we look forward to your posts! =)
Ongy out.
0 comments
LSE Opening comments 220409
Afternoon everyone,
Well looks like that optimism from Geithner comments didn't carry on till today...
Asia seems to be generally red, with financials flat.
Personally, I saw the UK and US markets both red yesterday due to financials (Prudential and Bank of NY Mellon man). Geithner has commented several times on the market everytime bad news comes out to drive it up... so why shouldn't I have been suprised>.<.
Okay rant aside, Asian financials were generally flat today, HSBC HK is currently down by about 2.3% today.
UK financials have opened up on a positive note despite the FTSE falling which comes as a personal suprise to me; however, I see a certain degree of leveling on financials by the end of the day (assuming some spill over from Geithner's comments is being reflected in morning figures), especially given the dim sentiment shown by Asian financials. Overall, it looks like a red day for the FTSE today, 1% range or greater is possible. Some light profit taking on Tesco after a nice green day post financial results is going on early this morning. A lot of things to cover in Asian closing wraps and UK mornings, hopefully we can refine this process, but this is the current outlook for now.
Well looks like that optimism from Geithner comments didn't carry on till today...
Asia seems to be generally red, with financials flat.
Personally, I saw the UK and US markets both red yesterday due to financials (Prudential and Bank of NY Mellon man). Geithner has commented several times on the market everytime bad news comes out to drive it up... so why shouldn't I have been suprised>.<.
Okay rant aside, Asian financials were generally flat today, HSBC HK is currently down by about 2.3% today.
UK financials have opened up on a positive note despite the FTSE falling which comes as a personal suprise to me; however, I see a certain degree of leveling on financials by the end of the day (assuming some spill over from Geithner's comments is being reflected in morning figures), especially given the dim sentiment shown by Asian financials. Overall, it looks like a red day for the FTSE today, 1% range or greater is possible. Some light profit taking on Tesco after a nice green day post financial results is going on early this morning. A lot of things to cover in Asian closing wraps and UK mornings, hopefully we can refine this process, but this is the current outlook for now.
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Hey
Hey,
This is just a heads up that we're starting this blog within the next week or so.
Will give a heads up on what we plan to publish here (this post will probably be deleted by next week).
Basically this blog is being set up to provide a way for us to express our views on the current global financial markets, starting with opening and closing wraps (and maybe some comments in between). Bear with us as we try to cover as many markets as possible. We plan to develop our focus eventually, starting out with general overviews of the markets and narrowing our comments to specific companies or industries when relevant. I would like to add as a closing comment before you believe everything we say (or not), these these are our opinions and ours only. We welcome any difference in opinions in our comments, and would enjoy a good debate or difference in opinion (not that we always agree). Anyway... wish us luck!! (or maybe more likely wish the financial markets good luck).
I'll add a post on our background (vaguely) a bit later so at least it makes us sound like we know what we're talking about.
Dive2Blue out.
This is just a heads up that we're starting this blog within the next week or so.
Will give a heads up on what we plan to publish here (this post will probably be deleted by next week).
Basically this blog is being set up to provide a way for us to express our views on the current global financial markets, starting with opening and closing wraps (and maybe some comments in between). Bear with us as we try to cover as many markets as possible. We plan to develop our focus eventually, starting out with general overviews of the markets and narrowing our comments to specific companies or industries when relevant. I would like to add as a closing comment before you believe everything we say (or not), these these are our opinions and ours only. We welcome any difference in opinions in our comments, and would enjoy a good debate or difference in opinion (not that we always agree). Anyway... wish us luck!! (or maybe more likely wish the financial markets good luck).
I'll add a post on our background (vaguely) a bit later so at least it makes us sound like we know what we're talking about.
Dive2Blue out.
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